MORNING WEATHER WRAP - AFTER A VERY ACTIVE AND WET 2021, WE END THE YEAR ON A QUIET NOTE.

The weather remaining very much unchanged from the last 2 days of modelling, with a quiet phase continuing for large chunks of the nation, the monsoon trough has retreated, the tropical low is moving on to the Coral Sea and the high pressure over the south and east keeping things settled as well. All in all, 2021 is ending in a way in which does not reflect what happened this year.


With that said, 2022, will start to see some changes developing to the settled spell with troughs deepening over the western and eastern interior and the weather over the north becoming more unstable with bouts of strong to severe storms with a very humid and hot airmass.


There are some weak signals for the monsoonal weather to redevelop later next week and a trough deepening bringing further widespread showers and thunderstorms for VIC, NSW and QLD. The weather over SA and WA should remain mostly dry but obviously the north of WA will become more unsettled with strong to severe storms to return.


Finally, the heat over the southeast will moderate by the end of the weekend and next week looks pretty seasonal. The Ag areas in the east so far avoiding long bouts of heat, unlike the west where more high heat is set to redevelop next week.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

The consistency remains very poor across all models from run to run so I cannot lift the confidence in forecasting rainfall really anywhere across the nation. The higher chances of decent rainfall will be found in thunderstorms, so over the northern tropics and eastern inland of NSW and QLD look to fair best. The next major storm event for the northern tropics comes early next week with an impulse of energy working around high pressure to the south. That moves northwest over QLD and NT and then into the Kimberly. Then mid to late week a deepening trough over the inland will likely produce showers and thunderstorms for large parts of the east offering the first decent rain for many after a quieter few weeks. Otherwise the south and southwest look dry for the coming 10 days. Some models offer more rainfall to the southeast than others, so not changing the rainfall predictions for the Ag areas over the southeast for now. The monsoon may return from later next week but it appears that models do strengthen it from mid month as per my advice over the course of the past few weeks. That will introduce more rainfall opportunity for the nation, but higher humidity.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are anticipated to increase in coverage on Friday as a heat low deepens over parts of the NT and WA, with storms tending gusty during the afternoon and evening. The coverage a little more widespread over the northern tropics during the afternoon and evening with heavy falls in a couple of places. Elevated storms over the outback will continue, but most of the rainfall light if anything.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are expected to continue over northern tropics during the afternoon and evening with some of the thunderstorms expected to be gusty at times as well with higher instability levels. Thunderstorms are also expected to extend down a trough and in advance of a wind change through SA and into VIC and western NSW, but storms are anticipated to be mostly elevated and dry.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Middle level thunderstorms will continue to move east along and north of a wind change passing through NSW and the ACT. These are expected to be non severe but could be gusty. Thunderstorms also elevated and non severe over the inland of WA during the afternoon and evening. Up north, a developing heat trough will deepen and this will see an increase in showers and thunderstorms once again with some heavy and gusty.

Severe Thunderstorm Potential Next Monday and Tuesday

An area to watch through the outback extending over the northern tropics, a fairly decent thunderstorm outbreak could result in damaging winds becoming a widespread event Monday and Tuesday as this pulse of energy moves northwest over the course of early next week. Something to watch and I will update this chart on Sunday when better data comes in.

Severe Thunderstorm Potential Next Thursday and Friday

A low end threat at the end of next week for the southeast inland. A sharpening area of low pressure connecting with moisture will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some may turn severe. The thundery weather may turn into a more widespread rainfall event and if easterly winds get involved and the trough moves onto the coast, we may transition into a heavy rainfall event for the southeast of NSW or eastern VIC. Something to watch and as per above, will have this chart updated from Sunday when better data comes in.

Tropical Waves - Next Week - December 30st 2021- January 7th 2022

No change to the guide, still looking at the tropics becoming more active as we go along through this period, with the higher chances of tropical mischief being offshore QLD in the Coral Sea but something may lurk northeast or north of the NT too and south of Java.

Excessive Heat - Next Week - December 31st 2021 - January 7th 2022

A reminder that very hot weather is extending throughout the south today but will ease across the weekend. Very hot weather is underway over the northern tropics with a nasty amount of humidity trapped in the lower levels along with monsoonal break conditions, very hot weather to persist. The west will see very hot weather developing from the weekend into next week.

DATA - Refer to the video for more information


12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

No change to the pattern from overnight with a dry and hot weekend for the southeast and east as a change slowly moves north. The north of the nation back to build up conditions with the routine showers and thunderstorms. A change that moves through the southeast will move over NSW and QLD and stall out early next week, this becomes the feature to watch with regards to unsettled weather redeveloping. The north of the nation tends more wet with a trough deepening and heat low over land producing more instability, leading to more showers and thunderstorms. The west turning hotter as the east sees moderation in temperature, this continuing the theme of temperatures fluctuating from west to east into early January.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

Very deep moisture is heading offshore the QLD coast today with the tropical low moving over open water. A very moist and unstable lower levels will continue over northern Australia, dipping into the western and central interior producing showers and storms. The moisture eventually will be pulled across the nation into the eastern inland next week as the high parks itself over the east allowing for a southeast to easterly change to move through and then stall out. This will then tap into moisture to produce more unsettled weather from this time next week. The south and southwest closer to the ridge, remain in seasonal humidity values for the most part.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video

12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video - it is way too dry.

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More information in the video

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days

More information in the video


I will have an update on the 6 weeks ahead from lunchtime.

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