MORNING WEATHER WRAP - A SETTLED DAY TODAY - THEN STORMS RETURN EAST AND A STRONG EVENT WEST.

A cold start for some in the southeast this morning with a little light frost about the GDR but after last week's wild weather, a pretty good looking Sunday is on the way.


Nationwide it is looking pretty good. The exception being the tropics and down through central areas of the NT to central SA where a weak upper disturbance may fire off some showers and thunderstorms, but moisture is limited, so little to no rainfall with these.


The main event for the nation coming up is the strong cold front for WA from later tomorrow into Tuesday with gales, heavy showers and well below average temperatures. The other event of moderate consequence will be the scattered showers and thunderstorms for eastern NSW and QLD. The dynamics for this round of unsettled weather, nowhere near what we had in place last week, so severe weather will not be as widespread.


But with storm season expect the unexpected.


FORECAST CHARTS


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall trending a little more limited as we go through a break period from high impact and large scale weather events nationally. That is somewhat normal after a very active time, but we still have the event over the southwest third of WA which will bring a month's worth of rainfall to many locations. We have the scattered showers and thunderstorms over the east early in the run as well with uneven rainfall distribution. The trough from WA will move into SA and the southeast states during the latter part of this week producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms as that meanders along. Guidance still poor on rainfall quantities with this event so something to track this week. The tropics likely turning more active and that activity likely seeping southwards through the outlook period into the Central NT and parts of Western and Central WLD. Otherwise trending a little drier in the models since I had a larger update on Friday. But it won't last long.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms are possible once again across the tropics, they could produce a decent amount of rainfall. A middle level trough may produce a few high based showers and storms over the central interior with little rainfall.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms in multiple pockets thanks to areas of low pressure skirting through the upper atmosphere. The most potent area of thunderstorms is likely near the east coast and adjacent inland, where an upper trough will move into place, being fed by onshore winds to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some of those storms possibly severe with heavy rainfall. High based storms over the outback of the nation will little rainfall, in an atmosphere devoid of low level moisture. Scattered thunderstorms over the tropics with moderate to heavy falls. The storm risk over the southeast mainly elevated and on the northern periphery of a weak trough and front passing through TAS.

Damaging Winds Risk Monday through Tuesday - WA

High impact damaging winds possible for the southwest coast of WA, especially if a low pressure system decides to move over the coast next Tuesday. Squally conditions north and east of this advancing system. The winds may extend inland as well.

DATA


GFS 12Z Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The weather settled today, with high pressure dominating a fair chunk of the nation and that is leading to the light winds, clear skies and seasonal conditions. A few parcels of unstable air about the inland and over the north will come into play during Monday for mainly eastern coastal areas of QLD and NSW and southeast inland areas of the nation, particularly VIC. The better rainfall coverage over NSW/QLD. The weather out west the most dynamic. A strong cold front on the approach with a good period of damaging winds and moderate to heavy rainfall to sweep over the SWLD. Some of the weather could pose issues for farmers. Well below average temperatures to develop and persist through much of this week. That system will migrate across to the Bight but as mentioned likely to be up against the blocking pattern offshore NSW. This may force the lifting mechanism of the nation but the moisture likely to lag behind over the southern and eastern inland bringing showers and storms through SA but better coverage once again over VIC, NSW and QLD. The tropics unsettled with further showers and storms. The weather beyond the 7 day forecast is low confidence at this time.

GFS 12Z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

Dry air has taken over much of the mainland today, hence the lack of cloud cover and sunny skies. This will be the case for much of inland Australia this week as the pattern begins to shift to a positive SAM and rainfall turns coastal for NSW and QLD . Meanwhile the weather over the west will turn unsettled with a deep moisture plume thanks to a strong cold front dragging in the moisture from the Indian Ocean. That will form a large cloud band which will move east. The tropics very humid and warm and that air will again travel over WA and into the SWLD through the medium term. The east is still looking to turn more humid for the end of the month as well, so expect the rainfall chances to increase regardless of what the models are saying right now. I think we will see the modelling improve in the coming week. There is a lot of moisture out there for there not to be widespread falls.

GFS 12Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

The modelling on rainfall always turns feral at this time of year, between now and mid November. We have the ongoing battle between the last of the westerly influence from the Southern Ocean and the tropical easterly winds starting to take over the northern parts of the nation. Once the tropical easterly winds are in place and further south, then we see a bit more consistency coming into the rainfall forecasts. That is why we are seeing such inconsistency not only last week but in the weeks to come. The wet bias continues for the east of the nation, seeping into the southeast over the course of the next fortnight. The weather out west in the short term, wet. That will be some of the heavier rainfall we will see this week. The eastern seaboard picking up more stormy weather from time to time with onshore winds and troughs passing through from west to east. The north active, and above seasonal rainfall is still likely.

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks

Rainfall is still unchanged, a wet run into Christmas is likely.

The Seasonal Outlook for Summer coming up shortly.