MORNING WEATHER UPDATE - THE STORMS FIRE UP TODAY THROUGH MOST OF THE EAST AND NORTH. HOT WEST.

Really not a great deal of change in the forecast package today, we have the trough in the east triggering more widespread showers and scattered storms, some of those may pack a punch.


The tropics are active again after a lull overnight thanks to the high energy wave Sunday night, there is the chance of more heavy falls about today.


The west is very hot, with gusty easterly winds and temperatures into the mid 40s in some areas and that heat will slowly move east and southeast through the state as the flow shifts more northeasterly.


Main weather to watch is the southeast once again, with heavy rainfall leading to additional flood risks back on the table as a slow moving trough and deep moisture supply combine.


Severe thunderstorms also likely to continue for parts of QLD through until the weekend.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

The rainfall is most concentrated through the northern and eastern parts of the nation, with the widespread heavier rainfall expected to the southeast of the ACT towards the South Coast and into Gippsland and over the northern tropics. The scattered falls with are expected to continue for most of the remainder of the nation with uneven rainfall distribution this week, with the heavier rainfall totals where the deeper moisture can be found, once again over the north and east of the nation. The weather over the west and south remains drier with a high pressure ridge nearby with stable easterly winds, keeping the storms away from the coast.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Isolated thunderstorms are already underway through parts of the NT, QLD and NSW this morning and the thunderstorms are expected to turn more scattered this afternoon with all modes of severe weather possible. The large hail risk reserved for far northern NSW where the air is expected to be most unstable. Damaging winds more likely over the outback of the NT and QLD into NSW and heavy rainfall possible throughout the shaded region with the higher moisture profile.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms will continue from Tuesday into Wednesday with storms likely turning severe once again over much of QLD and back through to the NT and south into northern and central NSW. Areas of rain with embedded thunder over central and southeast NSW will deliver locally heavy falls but thunderstorms turning severe in this region is unlikely given the cooler airmass and rain. Storms may develop over inland WA near a sharpening heat trough, these could be gusty, but dry.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms continue over northern and eastern parts of the nation with a deepening low pressure system and upper level low over the southeast of NSW bringing heavy rainfall with thunderstorms, but in the warmer sector to the north, that is where the strongest thunderstorm activity will be found with all modes of severe weather possible. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding possible with the storm activity over the north of the nation and gusty dry storms over outback WA.


DATA

12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The unstable airmass over the east continues with showers and thunderstorms most days until the weekend, with heavier rainfall for the southeast of NSW and the ACT. There will be drier and seasonal weather for much of VIC and southern SA with the heatwave conditions starting to ease along the west coast of WA by mid to late week. That means the heat is on the move towards the east from this weekend into next week, so expect a much more summer like period for the southern and eastern states next week. Over northern Australia, the showers and thunderstorms continue with the deepening heat low wafting around spawning the showers and thunderstorms in that moist airmass and the showery weather will continue for much of coastal QLD. At this stage I am drawing the monsoonal weather to jump Australia and end up in the Pacific Ocean and will review the MJO details later today.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Note the moisture remains in place over the east and north with humid and unstable weather for much of this week. The west and south of the nation, remaining dry with near normal amounts of moisture for this time of year. The main monsoonal pulse that was forecast to come through northern Australia, may end up in the Coral Sea, this is GOOD NEWS for the east and southeast as we can probably start to reduce the rainfall risks coming into Christmas for the flood areas, but will have more on that later.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

You can catch the other models in the wrap coming up shortly in another post and in the video above.

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

You can catch the other models in the wrap coming up shortly in another post and in the video above.

12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

You can catch the other models in the wrap coming up shortly in another post and in the video above.

Your 6 week outlook coming up from mid morning and will have further details on all things rainfall coming up from 9am EDT.