MORNING WEATHER UPDATE - THE MONSOON CONTINUES UP NORTH - HEAT OVER THE WEST AND STORMS OVER QLD.

There may be a few thunderstorms over NSW as well but the coverage today is set to be a lot less than what we saw yesterday where some locations picked up a months worth of rainfall. It is a La Nina Summer after all and that is what you can expect between rainfall events.


The south continues with the settled dry pattern, in fact most areas of VIC, SA and southern WA should remain dry for the remainder of 2021 with a firm ridge in place. Great for those not wanting any rainfall at the moment. The southwest could do with a decent drop of rainfall after what has been a very hot week.


Monsoonal conditions are persisting over northern parts of the nation today, in particular the Top End and into the Gulf of Carpentaria with the monsoonal low contracting east today and clearing into QLD on Tuesday. Rain and thunderstorms will turn more isolated for the Top End with the heaviest of the rainfall anticipated to be found over the eastern Top End and in northwest QLD.


For those looking ahead to NYE weather and if there is any signal of rainfall moving south, not much love on the charts at this stage for southern WA, SA and VIC. QLD will need to pay attention the forecasts closely with the risk of heavy rainfall drifting south with the tropical low through this week, but confidence is not especially high at this time.


Lets take a look - videos to return from Tuesday morning


FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is confined to the monsoon over the north and the remnant low moving from the NT into QLD and feeding another trough of low pressure with areas of rain and thunderstorms for central and northern QLD. Some locations over the north could see 200-300mm in a matter of days with this low pressure system passing through from west to east this week. Over the remainder of the interior in the vicinity of this low pressure system, afternoon showers and storms for northern SA, much of western and southern QLD and northern NSW is possible but that activity will start to thin out towards NYE as the high over WA moves through into SA and VIC bringing drier weather. The monsoon will retreat off the northern parts of the nation so rainfall also becoming more scattered as we head through the week and into the weekend, though will be watching for further tropical depression formation. The west and south expected to be mostly dry.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms once again likely for much of QLD with heavy falls over the tropical regions around the Gulf and throughout much of southern and central areas with damaging winds and large hail also a concern for southeast coastal areas. The Top End can expected thunderstorms about today, with some of these with damaging wind gusts with the monsoon trough in the region. High based storms for the west coast of WA but no rainfall expected, so dry lightning a risk.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorm severity contracting north and east through the nation as the remnant tropical low pushes into QLD. Storms may be heavy with flash flooding and gusty with damaging winds. Thunderstorms continue for much of QLD and will likely to edge south into northern and western NSW and eastern SA. These more isolated with the chance of one or two heavy falls. Dry storms for the west coast possible in WA.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms continue for much of northeast QLD with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and damaging winds the main risks on Wednesday. A trough sharpening through the western interior of QLD will extend through eastern SA with a few showers and thunderstorms but moisture is limited. Thunderstorms tending more scattered over the NT and into northwest WA with storms heavy in pockets but no severe weather possible. Dry storms with a lightning risk over WA.

DATA

12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The tropical low dominates the charts this week for the north, the high pressure system over the Bight for the south, and that will divide the nation into two. The monsoon will bring cooler windy wet weather for another few days over the northern tropics before the rain contracts east mid week into QLD and monsoonal break conditions resume for the north. For the east, QLD is set to be wet with multiple troughs and the tropical low moving through bringing widespread heavy rainfall for central and northern parts of the state, location of the low is key to who gets what. The trough lingering over QLD will dip into NSW and eastern SA bringing few showers and thunderstorms while VIC and most of WA should remain dry and settled for now. The weather is very typical of La Nina Summer, with the west baking the north and east very wet and the southeast struggling to get back into the 30s. When we get to this weekend, there will be a pattern flip with the high pressure system over the east of the nation bringing relief to the west in the form of southerly winds and the monsoon may be offshore the north coast of the nation.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

Moisture values are very high over northern Australia and will continue this way for the next 2-3 days before the deep moisture heads into QLD and then offshore the coast. The monsoon trough location will be key to how much moisture remains in place over the nation's north driving rainfall chances. There is some chance that build up conditions/monsoonal break conditions will resume up north with drier air coming into WA and through the south. The east coast remains humid in easterly winds this week but those values may fall away a little through the weekend as a northerly flow develops.



12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE

This way too dry in my opinion, but we will watch trends. The Euro has been struggling with the evolution of the weather for the past few days.

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE (monsoon only)

The GFS keeps the monsoonal trough closer to the northern parts of the nation, you can see how it lays across the Kimberly through the Top End and into Cape York. North of this trough is where you will find the widespread rainfall and windy weather. Signals from the SAM tending negative for a brief moment has caused the models to freak out and drop the rainfall for a lot of the nation away from troughs.

12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

The wettest out of the three models and keeps the monsoonal trough further south over land meaning a wetter nation, the moisture helps to feed troughs further south and with easterly winds, showers persist for the east coast.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

The Euro sees the monsoonal trough sticking around with moderate to heavy rainfall to return from the middle of January. The rest of the nation quiet, but from mid January things will start to become wetter for southern and western parts of the nation.

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

You can see that moisture creep coming south through mid month.

12Z GFS- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 5 Weeks

A wet period continues for the north and east this week but conditions may ease into early January for a moment, before the wet weather begins to ramp up from mid January onwards. The west will see rainfall return with the next wave of monsoonal weather.

12Z CFS- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 Weeks

The coming 6 weeks are wet for the north and east. I think we will see a reasonable burst of rain and cooler weather for the north and east over the coming week then a break and then the rainfall is likely to ramp up for the second half of January and into February. This will be once again connected to the next burst of monsoonal weather. Troughs over the inland look to provide an uneven distribution of rainfall for now, but will be watching for more organised rainfall events, however storms have provided some with 1-2 months worth of rainfall this month alone. The west will likely get some summer rainfall from the next burst of monsoonal weather, the east will be under persistent easterly winds through January, especially the second half of the month.

AREAS TO WATCH

Heat building throughout the nation from the weekend and into next week which could see another heatwave develop, especially if the monsoon leaves the north of Australia.

The tropics will be active through this week and will watch the area of disturbed weather that is over the NT head into QLD and this could be where we see the tropical low form into a weak cyclone.

More coming up this afternoon if there is anything to update you on, back to the usual updates from tomorrow. Have a great holiday Monday.

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