MORNING WEATHER UPDATE - THE HEAT IS ON AND THEN SOME RAIN

Well no real change to the weather in the coming days with a strong cold front likely to drag in warmer air as we track a spring time feel to the region.


But it is all about that rain event sweeping through the coming week with a good chance some areas in the southeast experiencing up to a month's worth of rainfall, pinning that down is very tricky.


Lets see if I can answer some of those questions below

Rainfall next 10 days

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The surface pressure pattern remains largely unchanged with the strong northwest flow expected to bring in the warmer air over much of the nation from today, with well above average temperatures passing through. The weather over the northeast will begin to clear with humidity reducing thanks to a high building in. That will see sunny and hot weather then extend through large parts of QLD. Over northern parts of the nation we are set to see showers developing as moisture increases. Then the front passes from WA bringing a band of rain during Wednesday, the front then moves southeast and east bringing patchier rainfall through SA and then the front taps into deeper moisture over the eastern inland with areas of rain and a few heavy falls most likely through VIC into southern NSW as the front slowly moves through with a colder shift. Next week, models have trended drier but again the forecast will chop and change still so pay attention in the coming days.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall largely unchanged from last night with the bias of heavier rainfall over southeast and eastern parts of the nation, though numbers are coming up a tad for SA and through the interior.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

As explained in the video, the main moisture to watch is coming through QLD via the rain event there today, the timing of that system is crucial with widespread rainfall likely to develop in response to a cold front running into the moisture. Will be watching the timing of that front which will determine where the rain band develops. The air next week dries out and becomes colder, but again, we have seen different looks on this, but the models have trended drier.

I drew these graphics overnight. Remember the rain band will form in response to the front passing from west to east with moderate to heavy falls developing to where the moisture crashes into the system from the northeast and east. That looks to occur over parts of the eastern inland of the nation, east of SA, but this could change.

For rainfall to increase over SA - the moisture has to surge further west and the front needs to slow down but it appears that the modelling is set in the idea of the above option rather than the below option.

Thunderstorms will feature more prominently over parts of QLD today with heavy falls pushing eastwards

I will have a two week update coming up this morning which will look more into the weather next week and a Climate Update looking at September 2021.


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