MORNING WEATHER UPDATE - RAINY AND COLD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BUT DRIER ELSEWHERE.

As expected the drier air has lead to a nice cleanout from the high humidity and periods of thundery rain for most of inland Australia. The rainfall has persisted overnight through the southeast of the nation however and it is feeling more likely September with cold rain falling today.


The weather is expected to remain showery and wet through most of today in southern NSW, VIC and TAS. The bulk of the nation staying dry with more sunshine than the previous week with drier air aloft.


Another cold front through the southeast wiil reinforce the showery weather with the chance of hail and thunder over southeast areas of the nation. August temperatures expected for Sunday with a biting southwest flow. The rest of the nation dry and cool, the west warming up and feeling that Summer warmth.


Now the nation returns to seasonal conditions as we move into the middle of the week, a November synoptic pattern resumes. Onshore winds will help to promote showers along the east coast of QLD and NSW. Another plume of moisture entering WA will seed a trough over WA bringing an increase of showers and thunderstorms later this week.


The next chance of rainfall or thunderstorm activity sweeping the nation looks to emerge out of that trough from later next week into next weekend. At this time it is looking not as robust as this previous system. But it will reset the pattern beyond this to turn more humid and unsettled as we round out November.


Satellite Imagery

Note the drier air being drawn in over the nation as the low in the southeast moves further east. The rain and cloudy skies over the southeast will ease later tonight but a follow up cold front which is southwest of VIC and SA is expected to bring a cold burst of showery August air during Sunday with that reinforcing the cleanout of that high humidity for the past 2 weeks. So expect to see clearer skies for the coming days away from the southeast.

Widespread rainfall has caused significant flooding for many areas of the inland - as I have been told on social media that it was a fizzer, it most CERTAINLY NOT a fizzer, with record rainfall being observed. These numbers will be reflected a few more times this side of Christmas.

Current Flood Situation

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

The reset in the weather pattern is underway with a low moving off to the southeast and a drier southwest flow beginning to push the low away today. A follow up cold front to push the stagnant pattern along and this will make way for the high pressure to come in from the west through this week. A nice airmass change from the high humidity will eventually be over taken with dry air, but the humidity will again start to build from later this week. While the chart is looking much more sparse in terms of rainfall, that does not mean it will be a dry week everywhere. Rainfall will increase over the tropical north from mid week and that humidity will begin to creep south. Another moisture plume will come in from the northwest of the nation and this will likely be lifted by a trough over inland WA with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over southern and central parts of the nation from later this week into the weekend. Again not huge rainfall at this time. This system will then reset the pattern back to a wet phase to round out the month, so that 4-5 day window of drier weather looks set to pass from tomorrow until later this week nationally. The wet end to November is expected to unfold as discussed from the 21st of November onwards.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Most of the nation in cool stable air today so thunderstorms will be over the northern parts of the nation and perhaps a few thunderstorms over the southeast of SA and southwest VIC with a cold front later tonight.

Farmers and Graziers - Friday through Monday. A gusty cold southwest flow in the wake of the low with heavy showers and gale force winds with temperatures up to 12C below average will continue from Friday through until Sunday night or Monday. This will carry a very high risk of stock loss for those in southern VIC and extend into southern NSW and the ACT. The winds milder in the westerly flow on the east coast in lee of the divide.

Frost Risk Forecast Tuesday

This risk may be expanded into the Central Tablelands as mentioned last night.

Riverine Flood Risk - Weekend Flood Risks easing.

Over 100mm has fallen in eastern VIC with rain continuing to fall but the rainfall rates have come down today and the rainfall will continue to ease by evening.

DATA

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Note the moisture and instability leaving the east and southeast from early next week and we have a cooler and drier airmass replacing the eastern 2/3rds of the nation, the dry air also coming into the tropical north which is anomalous. The west is warm to hot and dry with a northeast flow, that warmer air shifting out by mid week as a southerly change moves through. That will be thanks to a trough deepening over the inland. That trough will push the high east and warmer weather is coming into the east from around 5-6 days from now. So it is a slow warm up for the nation away from the west. Now the next chance of rainfall will come from that trough over WA moving through SA and into the eastern inland during next weekend. The coverage of rainfall to be determined. Finally, watching very closely how the moisture pools over WA and in the east this from later this week and where the trough stalls out over the east in conjunction with the new high, does that sit further sending us into easterly winds throughout the nation making space for low pressure to cradle into the high, or does the high sit too far north? That will form the basis of forecasts coming up tomorrow and through the early part of this week.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Nationally, drier throughout this week with the moisture relocating to the northern parts of the nation, stalling out over Cape York into the NT. The moisture will eventually spread south and east during this week, with moisture also being reintroduced from northwest Australia which carries more interest in returning the nation into a wet and humid spell. But there is a little break from the humidity for much of this week and a chance to dry out.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - WA - Next Weekend - Area to watch

A very deep tropical low approaching from Indonesia could provide deep moisture levels coming into the nation from next weekend. The moisture already starts to emerge from mid week into the first trough. But it is the second burst coming in from this time next week that is the feature to watch.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days

Rainfall comes back following the low and frontal weather through the southeast this weekend. By mid week it is very dry across many areas of the nation, but as you can see it does not last long. After large scale systems move through, it takes about a week for the weather to reset and return to seasonal before rainfall reemerges. In the above cases, we have areas to watch in the next 7-10 days, especially the moisture coming out of Indonesia from the northwest through to southeast which could set the stage for a very wet end to the month, coupled with onshore winds and storms returning to eastern Australia.

I will have another update during this afternoon - have a great day.