MORNING WEATHER UPDATE - RAIN TO EMERGE OVER THE EAST TODAY - THE COLDER AIR SPREADS NORTHEAST.


Overnight we have seen some elevated temperatures in response to a cold front and upper trough passing through the southeast, causing northwest winds to become gale force across the southeast and east.


A colder southwest to southerly flow is slowly progressing east with patchy rainfall through SA, as expected the bulk of it light over the EP and through the YP thus far. This band of rainfall likely to expand in coverage over the east of SA this morning with showers and storms breaking out ahead of the patchy rainfall left over on the front, as moisture is lifted over the eastern states.


However growers be aware that the warmth will be followed by frosty weather early next week, WA feeling that this morning and again tomorrow morning. SA through Sunday and Monday morning and the eastern inland of NSW and VIC possibly southern QLD Monday through Wednesday.



Lets take a look at the latest.


FORECAST


Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are underway in the middle levels over eastern SA and VIC this morning with that activity developing over western NSW back through southwest QLD and into southern NT. This band of rain and storms will move creeping east and northeast over coming days. Storms could be gusty.

Similar story over the NT, thunderstorms are ongoing over the Top End this morning and that will become more widespread through Friday afternoon and again Saturday. Some heavy falls are possible between Ti Tree and Alice Springs.

Damaging Winds Risk

The damaging winds risk will begin to contract eastwards today and ease over the Alpine areas overnight. There is the risk of damaging winds with thunderstorms passing through today.

Dust Risk

The risk of raised dust is beginning to moderate this morning over the highlighted areas but rainfall coming through could be muddy/dirty in the west of NSW and VIC.

Flood Watch

The Flood Watch has been expanded into Central VIC this morning with 20-50mm likely this afternoon and up to 120mm over Alpine areas stretching into NSW. Ongoing flooding over the inland of NSW will be maintained at the same level through the outlook period following rainfall.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Largely unchanged from last night with the bulk of it falling during the coming 2-3 days over the east and the outback and then really, not much rainfall for the nation as we see high pressure dominating the proceedings next with areas of frost returning early in the week and then above average temperatures are back, with the cooler signal now being lost.

DATA


12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

As per the GFS in the video, really after the rain band moves through over the weekend, next week turns quiet, with frosts becoming the main issue for the southern parts of the nation with clearer weather returning to many areas with below average temperatures early in the week tending above average over the west and that will be playing out later in the week and into next weekend, so we may avoid the nasty colder look we were seeing in modelling earlier in the week. No rainfall of any note next week.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

After this weekend, not much through the outlook period. There could be a few showers for the southwest of the nation with a front passing by during next Wednesday, that sliding through to TAS this time next week. A few showers in trade winds over north QLD. Otherwise it is a dry look.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

And you can see that lovely deep moisture being overrun during the weekend, no change in that pattern, the southerly winds coming through southern Australia, surging through north with a strong high over the Bight this week coming and then it won't really be until the end of the outlook period, that the warmer air becomes more humid over the tropics and perhaps this will start to rotate southwest and south on the western face of the high into WA and SA waiting for another strong cold front or trough to lift it up.

I will have a CLIMATE DRIVERS update later this morning and MEDIUM TERM FORECAST outlook to see when the next chances of rainfall are.