MORNING WEATHER UPDATE - BETTER CLARITY ON THE RAINFALL SPREAD IN THE SHORT TERM - HOT TODAY!

A very busy weather day today with a high amplitude pattern leading to dynamic weather for parts of the nation.


Overnight there was excellent rainfall in scattered pockets over parts of NE NSW with onshore winds too. That is another sign of the times, with spring time starting to develop early this year.


More in the vlog below.


Rainfall for the next 10 days

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The pattern is dominated by this large scale system spreading from west to east over the coming 3-4 days which triggers widespread rainfall and storms through multiple states. The weather will clear from west to east as the front moves through with a large high to take over next week, with no rainfall for many areas, cooler than average temperatures slowly improving next week. The wettest part of the nation should be the eastern seaboard, over QLD for now, but that could shift further south later next week. A new front later in the period may bring rain to WA, otherwise it is quiet and dry.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Again the rainfall event over the coming 3-4 days will be the focus of the coming 10 days rainfall distribution and once the rainfall moves east of your region, you will be dry for a while with high pressure and dry air. So next week looks quieter for now, with good agreement in the modelling. The showers will return for the QLD coast in onshore winds otherwise it won't be until a few trough or front comes into WA this time next week that rainfall will return from the west across the nation. That system may bring a few showers to the southeast at the end of the period.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

As outlined in the video, the moisture from the storm complex over parts of northwest of QLD will be drawn south into the front, the front itself as identified on the satellite carries large amounts of upper level moisture but it will not be until the upper trough meets the deeper moisture over QLD that is coming south of the eastern inland of the nation, that rainfall breaks out. Then next week it is all about the high pressure with dry air pushing north and northwest through the nation.

I will have a closer look at the rain event later this morning, a medium term forecast update and why the models have gone all quiet into the long term...is it dry for a long while!?!

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