MORNING WEATHER - FLOODING PEAKING TODAY BUT EASING THIS WEEKEND - DRIER AIR MOVES EAST.

Significant rainfall overnight is now contracting east and north through QLD and southeast and south through NSW and VIC. After excessive rainfall from thunderstorms, the risk is translating east and drier air wrapped into the north of the low that is now over the Southern Riverina is clearing out much of NSW and QLD from this afternoon.


Severe weather still exists today over QLD, NSW and VIC, but it is moving towards coastal areas in all states. The weather is expected to turn drier and more stable over the weekend for the majority of the nation, but the southeast will still be showery and cold, September weather returning for the region. Farmers and Graziers beware.


Then next week the warmer and settled weather which will bathe the west of the nation in summer like sunshine will head east and the below average temperatures will return to seasonal values and then with some luck, above average temperatures.


But that will be coupled with an increase in humidity and this is where showers and thunderstorms will return to the east and north, as well as along a trough in the west before this all folds southeast during the medium term, this is where more weather of concern needs to be watched.


I will have more in the medium term forecast mid morning, as we know that the weather is expected to be wet today, but I want to see the later GFS data set to then bring the next video. The west and north plus central areas are much drier today with inland flooding easing.


FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is in the process of contracting south and east through NSW and along a trough through QLD with tropical air being shunted north and east. We have a dodged a bullet through some of those northern areas of NSW overnight but heavy rainfall has caused issues through parts of central and southern NSW and southern inland QLD. The whole mess of weather is clearing east with the southeast in onshore winds seeing the bulk of the rainfall this weekend and early next week. The rest of the nation fairly quiet for now. But I am fully expecting the moisture to return from the tropics, via easterly winds and the Indian Ocean. At this stage I am place marking the heavy rainfall over the north where there is a higher confidence of rainfall but be aware rainfall will return to inland and southern as well as eastern areas of the nation in coming days.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

The surge of cooler southerly winds can be see across the country, but ahead of that surge of dry cooler air, showers and thunderstorms will continue, locally severe with dangerous flash flooding possible about parts of the Wide Bay and Capricornia, Central coasts of QLD. Large hail and damaging winds also possible. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall also a risk for the Top End ahead of the dry line. Some chance of marble sized hail over tropical QLD and the NT with robust convection.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms contract to the northern tropics with a dry airmass over the southeast extending north. Some late thunder with a front may be possible over southeast SA and southwest VIC with a cold front approaching.

Frost Risk Forecast Tuesday

It is a low risk but it is worthy of a chart none the less.

Riverine Flood Risk - Friday through Saturday.

No change to the guidance for flooding to persist with and following heavy rainfall and for inland areas. The latest guidance not as heavy with the secondary system. But with this type of weather, expect the unexpected

Farmers and Graziers - Friday through Monday. A gusty cold southwest flow in the wake of the low with heavy showers and gale force winds with temperatures up to 12C below average will continue from Friday through until Sunday night or Monday. This will carry a very high risk of stock loss for those in southern VIC and extend into southern NSW and the ACT. The winds milder in the westerly flow on the east coast in lee of the divide.

DATA

12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The dynamic pressure pattern is on the way out with a cold and gusty southerly about the engulf the eastern third of NSW and QLD today, this will see a nice airmass change and a reduction in rainfall and thunderstorm activity for a while The west is nice and warm for a few days now, that drier air also helping to raise temperatures into the low and mid 30s along the west coast, a sign of the times. The southeast cold and showery through the weekend with hail and snowfalls back until Monday. Frost is a risk over the southeast inland Tuesday morning once the high moves over. The run of fine weather for much of inland Australia will continue until about the end of next week before rainfall forecasts return for pockets of Australia. I will have more on that coming up mid morning with the next lot of data sets.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

The significant rain event is on the way out, the anomalous humidity values are on the way out and the drier air that many are screaming for is on it's way into the east. Eventually by mid next week warmer weather will return, but as you can see so does the moisture. Remembering the rule as pointed out in winter this year, as we warm up, it will be hand in hand with moisture. The warmer the air gets, the more moisture it can hold and this theme will continue. More moisture equals more rainfall and you can see in the day 7-10 range, the moisture is back and building.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

Note the moisture being propelled east and north on the western flank of a deepening low offshore NSW by tonight and this will conclude the severe weather risks over the nation, however heavy rainfall may continue for the far southeast of the nation. The tropical airmass being pushed back to where it belongs. Again having the values over the continent at this time of year is a concern so early in the season and considering that the monsoon season has not started, be aware that this long duration humidity event with high rainfall with thunderstorms will return into the back half of this month and into December. As we have seen all points of the nation will likely be impacted.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

A lot of what you can see falls today, but the showery periods continue for the southeast with the weather drier most elsewhere for a while now as the colder surge of air rotates through the eastern inland from today. So the showers away from the southeast will be hard to find for a number of days now, from this time next week we will be looking at the shower/thunderstorm forecasts returning to most of northern and eastern parts of the nation, and a band of patchy rainfall may move from WA through SA and into VIC next weekend.

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Storms and showers mainly today over the east with showery periods over the southeast but once we lose the rainfall from the nation's east by tonight or tomorrow we will have a better handle on how the systems behave coming out of the west. Note the 2 week GFS below to see more wet weather to end the month across the nation as spoken about this week.

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

A lot of what you see in the east falls today. The southeast is wet this weekend, but mainly coastal areas from SE SA through southern VIC and TAS. The weather is likely to turn showery and unsettled over WA and the northern and eastern inland from later next week with another system moving through the southeast as well, from as early as this time next week, but as mentioned, want to get this system off the board first before diving into specifics as it is too confusing at the moment

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Clearly more concerning rainfall potential exists in the medium term from around the 19-20 of November and that will take us pretty much up until the end of the month, this is for eastern areas. The western parts of the nation will see warmer more humid weather develop as well with showers and storms returning from later next week. The tropics will be more active than what is shown here. More to come on this later this morning.

I will have more in the medium term forecast video and your harvest outlook 6 week outlook later this morning, but because there is a lot of people working very hard, easier to have a quick wrap this morning given the issues out east.