MORNING UPDATE ON THE RAINFALL FOR INLAND NSW AND QLD.

The latest details on the rainfall spreading through QLD into NSW over the coming 12-24hrs and then offshore by Friday.


You know the synoptic scale well if you have been following this daily this week and that is largely unchanged.


Lets have a look at the major models to see where we stand.


Starting with NSW.


12z Euro - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

Rainfall is more widespread through the coming 24hrs from southern QLD into northern NSW. The rainfall has now been extended with light to moderate falls now making it to the southern highlands and the ACT as the trough passes through. Rainfall on the east coast highly dependent on the movement and oscillation of the low pressure systems offshore. Fine and dry in the west initially. The the westerly wind belt returns with active frontal weather bringing rainfall back to much of NSW and into VIC and SA, who need a drop!

12z GFS - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

Rainfall heavier with thunderstorms in the band coming down from QLD later tonight into Friday. Some moderate falls extending south into the Central Tablelands but not as aggressive of the southern push into the ACT but will watch radar trends tomorrow morning, as that rainfall could surprise southern areas along the divide down to Canberra. Falls of 50-60mm possible with thunderstorms over the northern inland of NSW down to the New England and along the east coast mainly north of Sydney to Newcastle/Forster where the coast sticks out a tad.

So the first system for NSW


Rainfall for the next 3 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

Broad area of 25mm+ identified throughout the region, but your number will vary with thunderstorms producing falls up to 50mm in the pink zone, and some areas within the pink zone possibly scraping 15-20mm so it will be tricky to pick who gets what. But widespread moderate rainfall is expected. I have drawn that area further west and north to encompass the potential for thunderstorm development overnight and into Friday.

Rainfall for the next 3 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

Rainfall now expected to sink further south, and these numbers will chop and change so this is a preliminary forecast for people on the land, another update due this evening for this region, but do not be shocked if the totals increase in the afternoon forecast packages.


Taking it out further and the westerly wind belt is looking more aggressive as we track into next week with more likelihood of moisture becoming involved in the pattern from the northwest, the moisture also passing through the battle zone between the warmer than normal weather to the north and the colder than normal weather to the south, opening the door for areas of rain riding the jet stream over inland areas.


So the dry period that I was flagging for the eastern inland next week, may not be as dry as I thought.


Euro 12z - Surface Pressure and Rainfall Distribution for the coming 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

The wavy flow looking way more productive on the Euro this morning and that moisture continue to hover offshore the northwest of the nation getting involved in the jet stream and drawn southeast.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

The wettest part of NSW will be this region in relation to the westerly wind belt with bursts of rainfall and moderate falls possible from mid to late last week. Some of the windward slopes down through southeast NSW and northeast VIC may exceed the rainfall forecast here and that will be assessed again during the coming days. 5-15mm through southern inland areas may extend west to the Mallee and Riverlands which would be welcome.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

Rainfall eases over the eastern inland over the weekend and the rainfall moves south to the winter time pattern, however numbers may increase in the coming days for the northern and central inland of NSW and southern QLD extending back through to Central Australia with regards to a cloud band developing. Nice to see rainfall picking up for dry areas of NSW and SA/VIC which have missed out.

Lets look at QLD


12z GFS - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

Another half to one months worth of rainfall is expected over the coming 24hrs with a trough deepening. Widespread falls extending over into NSW where the heaviest rainfall will be. Then conditions dry out over the weekend. Thunderstorms over the coming 24hrs could bring falls in excess of 40mm but they will be closer to NSW and mainly in NSW.

12z Euro - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

Rainfall is more extensive on the Euro, with some scattered thunderstorms expected closer to the NSW border. Widespread falls forecast would equate to another months worth of rainfall for many locations in the rain shield. Fine weather returns from Friday afternoon but keep an eye on the rainfall developing along the jet stream next week as it may return later this week.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

Rainfall developing in the coming 24hrs will contract out and clear later tomorrow. Showers developing for the east coast in onshore winds, with moderate falls about the tropical coast. Then watching that moisture towards the northwest and over Central Australia for next week which may introduce widespread light rainfall back.


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