MORNING UPDATE FOR THE WEATHER AHEAD IN NSW AND QLD.

Showery weather up and down the GDR overnight with some moderate falls in a few locations, is expected to increase further today as the moisture plume is invigorated by the approach of another trough pushing through southeastern Australia. That rain creeping over the divide into southern QLD.


The next wave of moderate rainfall is sitting back over the Bight with a front, with that system a little slower than forecast, which is good, means it can work with the moisture profile to bring further wet weather to those who need it.


For southern and central NSW, showers and thunderstorms will begin to break out today in the cold moist unstable atmosphere, mixing with the above average surface temperatures, this allowing for surface based instability. We saw that play out in SA with scattered storms yesterday.


Then a cold front sweeps through on Friday with showers tending to rain over the south with moderate to heavy falls over the southeast where flood watches are in place.


Showers will be wintry with hail and thunder Friday into Saturday with squally westerly winds, that eases later Saturday and by Sunday weather improves markedly.


Next week, widespread showers possible later Monday or Tuesday for southern parts of NSW with an upper trough, then we look at the widespread moisture increasing from the west, with a follow up rainfall event for most of the inland in about 1 week.


Model Data


12z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern next 10 days - Valid Thursday 15th of July 2021



12z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern next 16 days - Valid Thursday 15th of July 2021



12z Euro -Precipitable Water Values next 10 days - Valid Thursday 15th of July 2021



12z GFS -Precipitable Water Values next 16 days - Valid Thursday 15th of July 2021


12z Euro - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 15th of July 2021

Rainfall spread largely unchanged for the coming period, the westerly dominates and the baseline falls that are being analysed for the coming 4 days are encouraging for those needing falls on and west of the divide, be aware that some areas could see double what is forecast as the models do not handle the topographic rainfall well. More showers coming next week over the inland of NSW with that upper trough, better handle on that during Saturday once we are all in a southwest flow. Then more follow up rainfall coming across this time next week with another cloud band, that will be better handled from Monday next week.

12z GFS - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 15th of July 2021

Very similar rainfall spread for the southeast and east of the nation as per Euro, with snowfalls heavy at times this weekend. Then next week the frontal weather is a little more aggressive and more rainfall is expected for parts of southern NSW and across the southeast. Rainfall largely dries out from Saturday for about a week with the ridging moving over the region before another burst of moisture and rainfall coming in from the west during the coming week. That system could be very productive but a better handle on that during early next week once this full sequence is off the board.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 15th of July 2021.

Rainfall largely unchanged with the bulk to fall today over the northern tablelands and adjacent slopes, before easing later Friday into Saturday. Rainfall increasing over southern and central inland areas today with an unstable airmass combining with high moisture levels and the approaching front, so conditions becoming gradually wetter as we go. The rainfall persisting during Friday and Saturday with heavy falls over the southeast. Then conditions will ease from northwest to southeast during Saturday night as high pressure moves in. Another front due on Monday may bring back moderate showers for southern inland parts of NSW before a major rainfall event sweeps the west this time next week, I have not drawn that in this chart just yet.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 15th of July 2021.

No change to the rainfall distribution with the bulk expected to start falling from this evening through Friday and then easing later Saturday. Most of this precipitation will fall as snow over the southeast.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 15th of July 2021.

Rainfall increasing on Thursday and persisting through to Friday night, before clearing Saturday. Then a dry period for about 5 days before possibly the next rainfall event comes in from the west with moisture building through WA being picked up by the jet stream.

Thunderstorm Forecast for Thursday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely to increase across the region today, especially through southern areas along the top of a trough moving into VIC. Some of the storms could be gusty with small hail and brief heavy rainfall. The better coverage of thunderstorms will come on Friday and Saturday.


More to come this morning.


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