MONDAY MORNING WEATHER - THE SHOWERS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST INLAND. MORE FRONTS TO APPEAR OVER WA.

Updated: Jul 11

OVERVIEW

A weakening cold front is forecast to move through the southeast of the nation today, with a hefty cloud band spreading out, but the rainfall totals under this cloud not expected to be of any significance at this time. That marks probably the most significant area of cloud but the heaviest rainfall over the east coast will continue north of Gosford to Port Stephens.


Most elsewhere, expect dry and settled weather with high pressure over the north and out west as well leading to a good supply of sunshine and light winds, but temperatures are still forecast to be below average.


Another trough will move northwards through the Tasman Sea on Wednesday and a batch of showers and storms will clip the NSW coast once again before that moves away later this week with the block lifting out towards NZ.


We have a stronger cold front emerging during Thursday over the SWLD of WA which could lead to more widespread rainfall for the region with that rainfall spreading towards the southeast of the nation over the weekend with the chance of moderate falls here too.


Stronger cold fronts are forecast to stack up in the westerly wind belt over in the west of the nation with moisture beginning to move southeast into the jet stream and this is where we see more widespread falls developing across the nation.


SHORT TERM

Scattered showers today and tomorrow throughout the southeast will bring mainly light falls, and moderate rainfall today and tomorrow along the NSW coast with southerly winds also set to continue.


A clearing trend will resume over much of the nation with high pressure passing throughout the country and this leading to sinking air, drier air and more sunshine than what we are offered over the southeast and south of the nation.


Another strong cold front out west on Thursday brings the next chance of rainfall coming through the SWLD and that could pass through to the southeast of the country by the weekend with widespread falls again.


Yet another strong cold front may approach the west during this time next week with further moderate to heavy falls possible if moisture gets drawn into the system from the Indian Ocean.


LONG TERM

The moisture content over the southwest and south of the nation will move through into the frontal westerly wind regime at some stage into the end of the month and that is looking to lift rainfall frequency over western, southern and southeastern Australia.


Moisture rotating through the Indian Ocean is now forecast to pass through the jet stream and move southeast into the western and northwestern interior and this is where we could see more widespread rainfall emerge for inland areas with the chances coming up also for the end of the month.


Plenty of good opportunities for those who need rainfall are emerging, this may leave the disaster areas dry though which is equally good news.


AREAS TO WATCH

More on the SAM today and the moisture content working through the jet stream as well. Two elements that will be driving some interesting weather for the end of the month.


How long does the dry season continue up north? Some areas are seeing the best stretch of dry season weather so far this season, but is that coming to an end as well?


WEATHER VIDEO AM - MONDAY 11TH JULY 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is over the southeast today with mainly light falls as an open trough passes through VIC and NSW. Scattered light showers will clear out of SA and that will move further to the east during the middle of the weak. A deepening trough along the NSW coast could bring another burst of widespread showers along the coast from mid-week before the whole complex moves towards NZ. This will be pushed east by the next wave of cold fronts that are passing over WA with rainfall increasing out west from Thursday and Friday before that wet weather moves into southern and southeast Australia this weekend. Another strong cold front may start to approach the SWLD of WA with moisture drawn into the region leading to a more widespread rainfall risk emerging through the nation with that feature. The majority of the northern and eastern areas of the nation remains in dry air under high pressure leading to clear skies and near seasonal temperatures.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday to Friday.

Nil Thunderstorms.

WEATHER ISSUES

Riverine Flood Risk This Week

A lot of water still to flush through the system in the days ahead so please make sure you understand your risk to the flooded waterways as the peaks are still travelling through inland areas. Remain aware of the flood warnings.

WEATHER WATCH

Frost Forecast Monday Morning

Frosts should ease over the coming hour before returning again in some areas again into Tuesday morning. Overnights have been below freezing for the past 10 days over Central Australia.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

July 17th-24th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

The rainfall anomalies over the southwest and west of the nation reflect the persistence of the frontal weather and troughs over WA and deeper moisture coming in via the Indian Ocean and into frontal weather leading to widespread cloud and frequent rainfall. Seasonal rainfall most elsewhere but watch that rainfall bias over in WA if you are living in SA, VIC and NSW/ACT.

Temperature Anomalies

The warming trend continues through the west of the nation and that will spread east ahead of the developing wave of cold fronts pushing through the westerly wind belt. The thermal gradient developing across the nation may support the development of a broad cloud band rain band as the warmer air becomes moist and lifted by low pressure. Cooler weather continues over the east and northeast.

CLIMATE DRIVERS - SAM TENDS NEUTRAL BUT NEGATIVE SIGNALS TOWARDS THE BACK HALF OF THE MONTH LIFTING THE WESTERLY WIND BELT NORTH.

Noting that the members are starting to drop again as we head towards the end of July, with the mean (bold black line) being lifted to the neutral zone by the two positive outliers. So, expect this driver to shift further to negative territory as a response to the positive phase of the past fortnight.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more information and the model comparison and context.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Seeing the moisture in the short term contained into the frontal weather shifting from west to east with the bulk of the heavier moisture being drawn in from the Indian Ocean. That is a positive sign for rainfall coming back to WA, SA and VIC into southern NSW for those areas that need it. But overall, it is a gradual increase in the moisture profile over southern Australia and increasing dry season weather this week over the north with another burst of dry air surging north.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more information

Will have look at the Indian Ocean Impacts in the coming 2 weeks as we have got a few surges of moisture to contend with and a more vigorous westerly wind belt possibly combining to bring rainfall back to areas that need it! And taking a look at when the block is leaving the Tasman Sea.