MONDAY MORNING WEATHER - THE SEVERE WEATHER STILL PERSISTS ABOUT THE EAST AND DEVELOPING NORTHWEST.

The weather remains volatile for many areas over the course of the next week with flooding rainfall overnight now beginning to shift from SE QLD into NE NSW. The rainfall is expected remain heavy this morning for NE NSW with intense falls but that will begin to ease in the afternoon with lighter falls into tonight.


Severe storms are forecast to become more widespread this afternoon over VIC and the remainder of inland NSW and the ACT with locally heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main concern. There may also be damaging winds as well. The risk also extends into eastern SA as well as far west of the YP and Mid North. Remain weather aware as some centres could be clobbered pretty hard this afternoon.


The severe storm risk for the southeast and eastern inland will remain very much a feature this week, possibly lingering into the weekend with an upper trough/low. If that happens, we ma see further severe weather along the east coast with heavy falls redeveloping for parts of NE NSW and SE QLD and continuing about the SE coast of NSW and into eastern VIC. This has the potential to extend the flooding to other areas in the east so remain weather aware, I will have more on that later this morning and will closely monitor.


Over the northwest, TC Anika drives severe weather potential for the Pilbara and Gascoyne later this week as the system strengthens into a major cyclone before crossing the coast somewhere near Port Hedland Wednesday at the earliest but more likely Thursday. The system will extend flooding rainfall inland to the desert country and mining communities so this will need to be watched closely. The remains of Anika, likely to be eaten up by an upper ridge over the southern interior at this time.


For the tropics, moving into monsoonal break weather with the chance of showers and thunderstorms but the sun peeking out too with warmer weather than the past week. The temperatures will move out of the 20s and back into the 30s. Rainfall will increase again during the weekend and into next week.


it is a busy week and many areas will be under the threat of further moderate to high impact weather, so lets take a look.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains very much above average int he east and southeast with the stagnant trough, deep moisture levels and high risk of severe thunderstorms for the next 4 days. Heavy rainfall may develop for the NSW coast, mainly from Sydney southwards to the VIC border into Gippsland. The onshore winds are forecast to persist over the east coast but the trough over head is likely to weaken and move offshore leading to decreasing rainfall intensity for NE NSW and SE QLD but this may change into the weekend. Over the tropics, monsoonal break conditions resuming and less widespread shower coverage. The main focus will be with TC Anika over the northwest of WA, mainly through the western Kimberly today and through the Pilbara mid week with a flooding risk extending into the Central Interior through the latter part of this week as the moisture streams south from the TC. The landfall of the cyclone remains to be seen so this will determine who gets the heaviest rainfall and points inland during the latter part of the week into the weekend before the system weakens. The rainfall over the eastern inland may turn heavier later this week with an upper low moving into the eastern inland once again. Coverage may shift around as we get better guidance, but I am flagging this as a potential of further flood potential.]

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms will continue most widespread and pose the biggest threat in terms of severe weather over inland VIC and NSW through the ACT with all modes of severe weather possible. Flash flooding is the highest concern. The thunderstorm risk is expected to remain very high over the north of the nation, especially near the tropical cyclone/low over the northwest and with the monsoon trough hanging up over the Top End.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms will extend through the western interior of WA as the moisture streaming off the tropical system begins to be drawn into a western interior trough. Storms may be severe with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and gusty winds. Thunderstorms over the southeast and eastern inland also possibly turning severe once again with all modes of severe weather. The tropics also seeing widespread showers and thunderstorms with squally winds.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms will continue for much of the southeast and eastern interior with thunderstorms turning locally severe through the afternoon with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and damaging winds the main risk. The South Coast also looking at severe weather risks from heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. The northwest and central parts of WA will also run the risk of severe weather developing thanks to tropical cyclone Anika being in the region and she may be advancing to the coast. The tropics back to routine showers and thunderstorms with low chance of severe weather.

Severe Weather NSW/QLD - Flood Event is easing for QLD later but developing for northern NSW.

Up to 800mm has fallen overnight nearly breaking state record in NSW for the most rainfall in 24hrs ever! Heavy rainfall continues to fall today and with some luck should begin to ease later today! Heavy rainfall may redevelop again later this week for this region.

Tropical Cyclone Watch - Anika

TC Anika is setting to move west away from the Kimberly and should start to strengthen this week. The cyclone has a moderate to high chance of becoming a major cyclone by mid week before shifting southwards towards the Pilbara. The system could reach category 3-4 status before making landfall at maximum Cat 5 if it stays offshore in the favorable conditions.

SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEK

Severe Storm Outbreak - VIC and NSW

Another trough over the southeast is expected to form this weekend with that system amplifying over the region early next week. The deep moisture left over from the week of persistent easterly winds will be lofted into showers and thunderstorms with all modes of severe weather possible. The severe storms will contract eastwards from Wednesday and clear Thursday as a drier airmass starts to move in from the west and by the end of the week, drier air should be replacing the humid air over the southeast inland of the nation, but will have to watch the severe thunderstorm threat this time next week for northern and central NSW and into southeast QLD and the airmass clash over the region with a deep moisture load still in the region. There is the risk of dangerous flash flooding over the NE of NSW Monday and along the South Coast of NSW during Tuesday night through Thursday.

Flash flooding this far out at a 45% chance within a 25km given point is very high.

Severe Weather Watch NW WA and Western Interior - Severe Thunderstorms and flooding.

Wednesday through Friday.

Anika is making landfall over the northwest of the nation with the risk of her pulling south from the Indian Ocean, over the Pilbara remaining very high this week. Squally winds and heavy rainfall may develop once again from Wednesday through Friday with heavy inland rainfall leading to flooding the main concern with this system as most places along the coast are coded for cyclone impacts relating to wind

Flood Watch Southeast NSW - Tuesday through Thursday

There have been rumblings about heavy rainfall developing for the southeast of NSW with this next trough moving in from the west. This trough could combine with the deep moisture via the black Nor'easter and see widespread rain and thunderstorms with heavy falls along coastal areas from Sydney southwards to East Gippsland. Some areas on and east of the divide, particularly about the windward slopes, may see up to 300mm from the event. Given that some areas have already seen 1-3 months worth of rainfall in recent days, things are very saturated in the region so any additional heavy rainfall could be problematic.

DATA - Refer to the video for more information and analysis, there is more to the charts than just looking at them so make sure you see the data and guidance that underpins the forecast.


12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The significant weather is expected to continue across the nation's northwest and through the east with the severe weather threats continue on multiple fronts. We have heavy onshore coastal rainfall with intense totals. Over the southeast inland, widespread showers and thunderstorms expected in the coming days, we already have severe thunderstorm warnings for parts of NSW this morning. The weather through the northern tropics resuming monsoonal break conditions with more scattered rainfall expected. Though where TC Anika moves is where you will find rain and thunderstorms increasing which will be over the Pilbara at this time. Otherwise conditions remaining mostly dry for much of the Central Interior under ridging.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

A deeper moisture plume is forecast to remain in place for much of this week with strong chance of above average rainfall through the north and east. The weather is expected to also become more humid through northwest parts of the nation where the moisture from Anika comes in from the north. This will lift rainfall chances throughout large areas of the northwest. Across the northern tropics, seasonal weather is expected. Drier air over the Central interior remains in place for the period at this time.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for analysis and comparison with the other data sets

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for analysis and comparison with the other data sets

12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for analysis and comparison with the other data sets

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days

Refer to the video for analysis and comparison with the other data sets

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to the video for analysis and comparison with the other data sets

Once again, I am travelling this afternoon and I will have weather bites through the afternoon and evening pending the wifi on the plane this afternoon and evening. Next full update like this will be Tuesday morning from 8am EDT.