MONDAY MORNING WEATHER - SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE EAST. WHAT'S BEYOND THAT FOR THE REST?

OVERVIEW

A persistent easterly flow feeding deepening troughs along the coast and an upper low over the interior of QLD and NSW leading to widespread rainfall over the eastern third. Some of the rainfall has broken records for NSW and possibly have more added to that in the days ahead, before easing Tuesday night into Wednesday.


Across the remainder of the nation, what weather!? Dry, settled, cloudy at times over the south and drier and brighter west and north of the cloud band under high pressure.


But the question is for many not swimming this morning or up to their ears in mud, when is it my turn to get rainfall?


SHORT TERM

The short term offers not a whole lot of promise for at least soaking rainfall to return to the western and southern parts of the nation with high pressure moving eastwards and the pattern becoming more mobile, but the other factors need to be in phase to bring the rainfall back to southern Australia and they are not quite there yet.


Has this happened before with all the rain making elements in place to bring above average falls to southern Australia in Winter? YES - LAST YEAR! But the difference is that last year, the oceans were not as warm as they are now, so once we see the ridging break down across the north of the nation, this is where we see conditions shift and become wetter across the nation from northwest to southeast.


So that won't be quite now but something to look forward to in the medium term.


LONG TERM

As per above, there is not a whole lot to add to the discussion at this point in time other than to watch the videos for more context. Once we lose the severe weather in the east, the nation is relatively severe weather free for a while.


And much cooler than normal too for northern areas, suppressing the thermodynamics for severe weather and widespread rainfall to spread southwards. That means stable air for a while.


AREAS TO WATCH

We will be watching the SAM phase to see whether this neutral phase can shift negative and the upper high breaks down over the northwest and central parts of the country suppressing the moisture feeding in from the Indian Ocean.


WEATHER VIDEO AM - MONDAY 4TH JULY 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains very much a focus over the east and northeast of the nation with a trough over QLD and another trough over the NSW coast with a deep easterly flow leading to widespread rain and above average falls to continue. The rainfall will push off the east coast by Wednesday so look to the video for more advice on that. Then we see whether we can get some of that light to moderate rainfall that spills through southern WA from Tuesday into southern and southeast Australia later in the week with a series of fronts scraping their way northwards perhaps bringing up the chance of widespread rainfall later next weekend or into the following week, with some luck. Once this happens, the eastern and northern inland will clear and turn drier with the westerly flow, a few models do want to keep the easterly flow in place but overall, the pattern is more uncertain at the moment so expect more changes.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms along the coast of QLD and NSW with a deep trough and potential low-pressure system, could deliver heavy rainfall leading to flash and riverine flooding. Stable most elsewhere.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are still possible in the presence of an upper trough near the QLD coast from Mackay southwards and through the NSW border down to the Hunter. A low-pressure system offshore the NSW coast could also bring storms further south of Sydney as well but the confidence of that is quite poor.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Nil Thunderstorms Expected

WEATHER ISSUES

FLASH FLOOD RISK - SUNDAY PM-TUESDAY PM - QLD

A band of rain is expected to continue today before easing during Tuesday with some locations seeing 20-40mm/hr for a number of hours along the Central and Capricornia coasts. Some areas could see high impact flash flooding if we see the trough stall longer through the one portion of the coast than is currently advertised. The severe weather risks ease by Tuesday.

RIVERINE FLOOD RISK - NEXT WEEK - NSW

Minor to major flooding along the coast is expected to feature for the remainder of the week with the rain ending by the end of this week but with a chance of high impact flooding lasting about 1 week after the event through central coastal areas and adjacent inland portions of the coast into the Coastal Ranges. Some areas may experience flooding that rivals the events of March through Central Coastal NSW and Sydney. Conditions ease by mid-month pending no further rainfall.

RIVERINE FLOOD RISK - NEXT WEEK - QLD

Minor flooding is expected to develop with the heavy areas of rainfall through the coming 18hrs along sections of the coast. If the rainfall exceeds the forecast which there is a moderate chance it does, then we could see moderate flooding developing. The flood threat is not at the same levels as we saw with the Autumn events but may linger for about a week if the rainfall reaches the potential projected by models.

DAMAGING WIND RISK MONDAY - TUESDAY AM - NSW

Strong gradient winds are ongoing with a trough along the coast and an upper low over the inland helping to produce gale force southeasterly winds for areas highlighted, with tree damage being reported from Canberra through the Central Tablelands and along the coast with sodden soils and trees coming down. A sign of what is to come this Spring.

MEDIUM TERM

July 10th-17th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Still not seeing any strong signals for heavy rainfall across the nation at this but the wetter bias continues over in the east possibly, with the SAM staying relatively neutral, possibly a little more positive than neutral, which is giving off that weak easterly flow for NSW and QLD keeping some showers in the region but also knocking down the westerly wind belt and stopping major rainfall events from unfolding through mid-month over southern Australia. Frontal weather yes, widespread heavy rainfall, not yet. Drier weather up north with the MJO moving back away from the region.

Temperature Anomalies

Still have this very robust cooler signal for the northern parts of the nation and this extends through the central interior and into the eastern parts of the country. The southern and southeast of the nation is forecast to see relatively seasonal weather with high pressure over the region and this may spread back over southern Australia into WA.

CLIMATE DRIVERS - SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE - TOP OF THE PEAK TODAY THEN BACK NEUTRAL

You can see the response to the long duration negative spell back in June with an equal positive phase across the the past 2 weeks, with conditions forecast to remain weak positive to mid-month, members are more tightly clustered today as opposed to yesterday for this outcome over the coming 2 weeks. That will see the westerly wind belt have weak impacts on the nation's south and weaker easterly winds bringing showers to the east coast.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Finally seeing this long duration rain event over the north and east lifting away during the coming days but troughs may still impact the east and block up the westerly wind belt over in the west, so potentially seeing a continuation of dry weather for the south and west and wetter weather for the east and northeast. The pattern may repeat over the NSW coast again this weekend into next week with another low pressure system.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Very deep moisture is working through NSW in a strong southerly on the western flank of a low over the central NSW coast. A trough over QLD is clearly evident with deep moisture on and to the east of the feature. The remainder of the nation under very dry air and high pressure leading to more of the same. We do see moisture coming back into the west with a strong cold front this weekend, but it will be up against it, maintaining integrity as it moves eastwards. This is a very unusual pattern for this time of year.


12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more information

More information coming up today looking at the severe weather threat leaving the coast, a closer look at the SAM and the frontal impacts for southern Australia and much more. Plus check out the Facebook group post. Search Weather Matters with Karl Lijnders to find the members only page and I will be verifying all members for access.