MONDAY MORNING WEATHER - RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DRY MOST OF THE NORTHERN PARTS OF AUSTRALIA.

OVERVIEW

Areas of rain are continuing to move in over the southeast today after bringing some light to moderate rainfall throughout the southern coastal areas of SA. That rainfall has now crossed into the southeast states bringing mainly light rainfall, some moderate bursts about higher terrain but it is not a significant system, but it introduces welcome falls to areas that need it.


Everywhere else is quiet and settled under ridging, though cloud increases for NSW with some patchy falls coming into the state this afternoon and evening, mainly west of the divide.


As high pressure comes into the nation’s interior, conditions should be relatively quiet through mid-week but we have got a strong cold front on the move into the southwest and west of the nation, with a deep moisture profile, this will see rainfall become heavy once again over in SWLD of WA.


The drier weather thankfully is expected to continue over the eastern areas of the nation with the westerly winds and high pressure close by and the dry season weather continues for the north of the nation.


SHORT TERM

The pattern is gradually becoming more stable this week as we see a significant high starting to establish itself through the nation, but it is ridging through at a higher latitude and that means the westerly winds will continue under the high, with a few showers for coastal areas following the rainfall today but drier weather returns for much of the rest of the nation.


A strong cold front which I alluded to above over parts of the SWLD of WA by Thursday into Friday will be the focus of rainfall across the country for the end of the week while a nice warm up continues under ridging and sunny skies for interior parts of the nation.


By the weekend, the rainfall may begin to stretch into SA and into VIC with that being the broader rain event these areas have seen in recent weeks which will be welcome. Also, welcome? A lack of rainfall along the eastern seaboard.


LONG TERM/AREAS TO WATCH

The major cold fronts that are forecast to approach the southwest and west of the nation. The moisture is forecast to increase in advance of the fronts and troughs as they pass from east to west with the jet stream likely to become more active as we track through the weekend and into next week. This likely setting the stage for more widespread rainfall opportunities over the country as we move into August.


The Indian Ocean is expected to strengthen over the weeks ahead and we should be seeing the unfolding of the moisture into the jet stream and this then surging throughout the nation. As I have kept saying that the moisture running through the nation being picked up by frontal weather will dictate the spread and intensity of rainfall chances throughout the medium term.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - MONDAY 25TH JULY 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Areas of light to moderate rainfall over Victoria today will continue to extend towards the east and north of the state and creep into NSW today with light falls on and west of the divide. A few showers following the rain areas over the southeast can be expected over SA, but with the chance of a little low-pressure system rolling through Bass Strait tomorrow, the showery weather may be more extensive for Southern VIC before conditions clear throughout the nation by mid-week. A stronger cold front will approach the west of the country and that may lead to areas of moderate rainfall developing across the SWLD. That may extend across most Ag Areas as we head into Friday. This system will then be the focus of weather watching for SA and VIC as rain may redevelop for these areas this coming weekend. We may also see some major cloud bands developing through the nation later in the weekend and into the next week. The rainfall chances are coming up across the nation.

MEDIUM TERM

July 31st-August 7th, 2022

Moisture Watch

The moisture is increasing through the end of the month and likely to remain in high coverage throughout the nation as we enter August. Now there will likely be a lot of cloud moving throughout the nation, the heaviest of more concentrated rainfall is more likely to occur on and west of the divide in the east and through the southern states and heaviest over in WA. Some decent signals for a deeper rainfall event to develop over the eastern inland, through parts of western QLD and northwest NSW with an inland feature.

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies are coming up over the eastern and southeast inland with the convergence of moisture and unstable air leading to widespread cloud developing and areas of moderate rainfall over normally dry areas at this time of year. Seasonal rainfall expected through much of the south of the country, the dry season continues over most of the north though a few showers may keep the rainfall totals higher about Cape York. There may be some further above average rainfall over the SWLD of the nation with further moisture intrusion.

Temperature Anomalies

The heat engine is continuing to wake up and this is one of the areas to watch, as many love to focus on rainfall - this is another element that may see the rainfall increase in coverage as the thermal gradients become more dynamic and tighter, with moisture running through the clash zone, it opens many areas up to rainfall developing above the norm for August.

CLIMATE DRIVERS - SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE

The SAM continues to remain neutral for the week and there are some signals dropping it to a weak negative, but overall, the impact is the same with seasonal frontal activity and interaction with the mainland for now but opens the door for moisture to surge south and east from the Indian Ocean.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and context for the short- and medium-term daily breakdown.


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Refer the video for further information and context, we have a fast flow pattern returning and there are multiple waves in the westerly wind regime and loads of moisture building through the period. So, plenty to watch in terms of rainfall and windy weather.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

The moisture clearly continues to increase throughout the short term, but it is the moisture that surges throughout from the weekend and into next week that I am interested in to see whether that is picked up by cold fronts or inland low-pressure troughs. The moisture profile reflecting the elevated SSTs we have been observing for weeks and months now. It is starting to play out now with deeper moisture across the country.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more information

More coming up with a look at the weather into the medium term in greater detail and a review of the SSTs as well.