MONDAY MORNING WEATHER - COLD AND SHOWERY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. DRY MOST ELSEWHERE UNTIL MID WEEK

That is when we may start to see the rainfall approach the west coast with a trough and moisture plume combining offshore to lift rainfall chances as it meanders to the east. Otherwise, the bulk of the wet weather today and indeed through much of this week will be found over the southeast, from southern SA through VIC and TAS, clearing NSW from Tuesday afternoon.


That sets up a string of cold and frosty nights for much of the central and eastern interior with clearer skies and daytime temperatures for large areas of the nation remaining below average as the stagnant pressure pattern allows for colder rotates around the high and into the eastern and central areas. Coastal areas in the east may be spared the worst of the cold.


With the frontal weather continuing over the southeast through to the end of this week, areas in the southeast, you can expect little change to your forecast. Gloomy conditions will little sunshine and that may persist into the weekend.


Improving weather is forecast to develop over SA from later this week and clearing statewide by the weekend as the high finally moves into the southeast inland. This is where we see frosty weather becoming more of an issue of the southeast inland for the cropping farmers in particular.


Out west, the interest will be in how much rainfall develops via the moisture plume combining with the developing trough over the Indian Ocean and if the high moves off in time, we are getting some better guidance on that so check out the video below.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Showers and cold weather continue over the southeast of the nation today with light to moderate falls forecast for much of southeast SA, VIC and southeast NSW and the ACT. There may be some local hail and thunderstorms over parts of the southeast inland. Further cold fronts will bring further moderate rainfall chances for VIC with lighter rainfall back to southeast SA and lighter falls into southern NSW and the ACT. The bulk of the rainfall by mid week should be found over coastal areas of the southeast, the majority of the inland post some light rainfall over the eastern inland today, should be dry into the weekend with little chance of rainfall. Over the west of the nation, there is deeper moisture pool starting to approach the coast from mid week and this may begin to link into a trough of low pressure seeing rainfall chances coming up over the west and southwest of the country. Widespread falls are forecast to become moderate to heavy later this week with that possibly moving inland. How this moisture and rainfall moves eastwards is determined by the high pressure cell over the Bight and the longer it lingers over the south and southeast of the country, will hold up the rainfall spread towards the east. So keeping watch. But the numbers are coming up over the western Ag areas in WA which is good timing after a dry spell. So that is where the bulk of the rainfall will be found from later this week into the weekend.

Severe Weather Watch - Damaging Winds

A fairly vigorous front should surge northwards over the coming 24hrs setting up a tight pressure gradient. Strong and gusty northwesterly winds are expected to develop in advance of the front in SA and spread to the southeast later tomorrow and overnight into Sunday. A squally westerly change will move through SA late Saturday and then into the southeast on Sunday with the change not reaching southern and southeast NSW until Sunday afternoon. Strong and gusty westerly winds continue into Monday over the southeast ahead of further troughs, before the winds veer into the southwest and ease from Tuesday. So, a blustery few days coming up.

Farmers and Graziers - Next 5 Days

A bitterly cold southwesterly change is forecast to move through the southeast inland from late Saturday, moving into NSW Sunday with a cold and blustery airmass, filled with showers, hail and thunder. Squalls and gales will also keep the wind chill very high in most areas west of the divide. Further protection from this cold outbreak will be found in the lee of the divide in NSW where the winds warm up running down the eastern face of the ranges. Conditions are not forecast to ease until mid-next week over inland areas and the coastal areas from late next week.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Showers and cold winds over the southeast with an upper-level trough working through may produce well below average temperatures. A weak trough in the morning may produce a few storms with hail. The northern tropics drying out, but a few residual thundery showers are possible about the far northwest Top End and over Cape York with a weak disturbance nearby.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are still possible over the southeast with another cold front clipping the region, leading to small hail and gusty winds. Further afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the norther tropics during the afternoon in advance of drier air surging northwards.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are once again possible over the far north of Cape York and should clear the southeast by dawn on Wednesday. Stable weather most elsewhere but I may introduce some thunderstorm risks for the Pilbara and Gascoyne in future updates if the confidence levels increase surrounding the rainfall spreading in from the Indian Ocean.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible over Cape York with a moisture feed but the main thunderstorm potential does now look to move over the western areas of the nation with thunderstorms heavy and possibly leading to flash flooding.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are forecast to continue over in the west but may lift a little further north with a trough moving northeast a little. Thunderstorms may deliver heavy rainfall that could trigger flash flooding.

SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE - NEGATIVE TO PHASE TO RESUME

Peaked today and the drop and movement back to the negative phase will get underway from later this week and persist through late month, so expect the forecasts to become more active as we go for southern Australia.

MEDIUM TERM

June 12th-19th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall likely to be above average over the northwest and western inland with deeper moisture developing across the region, drawn in by the jet stream. Frontal weather running through southern Australia likely to keep rainfall near seasonal, but a drier bias over the southeast areas in lee of the divide from the westerly flow may turn drier than normal for this period.

Temperature Anomalies

Warmer weather redevelops over the western interior as a more humid and unstable airmass forms and winds veer into the north and northwest. Still colder than normal over in the east and southeast, but this signal should start to moderate throughout the back half of the month as the winds veer back into the west and northwest over the region ahead of the next weather maker moving out of the west of the country

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

More information on the daily break down can be found in the video - this is to cut down the bulk on reading and extra notes will be placed here going forward if there is any severe weather of note.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Watching that moisture over the northern and western parts of the country through the week, to see whether that can be dragged south and east into the weekend, or whether the high pressure and dry air keeps the dry spell going over the south and southeast. With the SAM tending negative, this will support more frontal weather over the southwest and south of the country through this period. Eventually that will spill east.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information


12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more information