MONDAY MORNING WEATHER - CHANGE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST, DRIER MOST ELSEWHERE AND WARMER.

ANALYSIS

A developing cold front in the Bight is trying it's best to push eastwards this morning and bringing cloudy and windy weather to SA and western VIC. The showers will eventually spill into these areas during today and tonight before moving east into Tuesday morning.


The weather out west has settled down after a blustery weekend with improving temperatures and easing winds. Inland areas could be dry for a while into the weekend which will be a nice change after gloomy conditions last week.


The remainder of the interior from WA, through northern SA and into the eastern inland covering large chunks of NSW and QLD and then north to the tropics, quiet this week under ridging so your forecast is easy! Dry and settled for now.


SHORT TERM

We have a couple of cold fronts to watch that are rolling under the ridge through the southern interior of the nation.


The remains of the front that brought the strong and gusty winds and showery cold weather to WA over the weekend has had a tough time up against the weak blocking pattern in the east leading to the system running out of puff. Still, showers with light to moderate rainfall is expected over the SE inland.


The next front is expected to approach from Thursday over the southern parts of the nation and this could be followed by cold air over the SE inland Friday and into the following weekend with showery weather continuing for these regions.


Following that system moving into the Tasman Sea, there could be some of that colder air moving northwards into interior SA and QLD which may link into moisture spreading south from the tropics bringing widespread cloud and areas of rain later in the weekend or from a week from now. So that is still an item to watch.


LONG TERM

The SAM tends more neutral so we will likely see a reduction in the west to northwest flow over the nation's south leading to high pressure moving south and bit of drier patch coming for the south and southeast.


Easterly winds may also start to feed an upper feature over northern and northeast parts of the nation leading to the showers and rain areas becoming a feature for parts of the NT, QLD and NSW.


Out west, there may be a stronger cold front knocking on the door as we approach the end of the month into early July, which could spread a large band of rain into the west of the country as well.


AREAS TO WATCH

Certainly, the most pressing issue will be that developing trough over parts of northern Australia next weekend into the following week, and whether it collects moisture through the surge coming out of the tropics or via easterly winds into early July.


WEATHER VIDEO AM - MONDAY 20TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall looks to be focussed over southern areas of the nation through the coming working week with the persistent westerly flow continuing to influence the distribution of rainfall between fronts, and the most widespread falls expected with a front today over the SE of the nation clearing Tuesday. Another front is expected to move through during Thursday over the SWLD of WA with further showers there but not to the extent of the weekend. This system will then move over the southeast of the country with showers likely from Friday and into the weekend with a colder period to follow. Keeping an eye on the rainfall potential over the northern and eastern parts of the country as we move into the weekend and early next week as a trough wafts around.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Chance of an isolated thunderstorm with a front passing through the southern parts of SA and into western VIC through the afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

A trough and low moving through the southeast inland may produce further showers and thunderstorms over the inland with local hail possible in a cold airmass but no severe weather is expected at this time.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Nil thunderstorms expected at this time with a cool stable airmass over the nation.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

No thunderstorms are expected at this stage for Thursday under a large-scale ridge over the continent. A front may approach the southern areas Friday which may produce a thunderstorm over the southeast and southwest.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Nil Thunderstorms expected with cold stable air over much of the south and dry air over the north for now suppressing convection.

MEDIUM TERM

June 25th - July 2nd, 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

The rainfall anomalies are not changing that much from yesterday as we track deeper moisture across the north and east of the nation. The issue will be the development of the upper feature as it wafts over interior parts of the country and whether that can marry the moisture!

Temperature Anomalies

The temperature anomalies are in line with the evolution of the weather system in the east and where that system travels and how much of the moisture surges southwards into the southeast inland will determine the spread of the warmer air into these areas. The SAM tending back to neutral values will help spread a little warmer through northern and western parts of the nation.

CLIMATE DRIVERS

SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE - WORKING ITS WAY BACK TO NEUTRAL VALUES.

Well as advertised through the weekend, the SAM will move back towards neutral throughout the coming 10 days, but likely not getting much further beyond that point towards positive, with wintry westerly winds to continue over the south at seasonal values.


DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video to bring context to the forecast packages and also a comparison of the daily run down with the GFS model for the short and medium term.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information and compare with this below with the GFS which probably has a better handle of the weather events across the country this week, and the weather over the northern and eastern areas of Australia will be a lot more unsettled and humid than what is being shown here. The westerly winds will continue to push the showery weather through southern coastal areas as is what is expected at this time of year.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to the video to contrast this with the models further below as this forecast from the Euro is probably not quite right and is of low confidence.

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more information

More coming up today including a look at the SPRING SEVERE WEATHER SEASON OUTLOOK 2022 and your state-based forecasts are back this evening