MONDAY EVENING WEATHER WRAP - FINALLY SOME EASING IN THE SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

The weather has been belting the northwest over the past 24 hours, some locations recording 300-400mm in 24hrs. Severe weather continues to pose a risk through the northwest through to Central Australia and then feeding the trough over the southeast producing widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall risks continuing.


Today we have seen quite a number of showers and thunderstorms over the southeast of NSW through the ACT today with heavy falls recorded. They have been popping up in random and scattered locations over VIC, the remainder of NSW and into QLD with once again heavy falls featuring.


Over interior parts of SA where the rail tracks have been washed away and the Stuart Highway remains cut with 400mm of water still over the road which has damaged culverts, more rainfall is forecast during the next 2 days with the offshoot moisture from the tropical moisture moving southeast through the state.


The weather over the southwest is set to remain very much settled with now guidance agreeing together on keeping the tropical low up north and then heading offshore into the Indian Ocean and weakening into a trough.


Drier air is coming for the southern half of the nation for the remainder of the week into the weekend. With that bump of southerly winds over VIC, SA and inland NSW, the monsoon trough will being moving northwards through the tropics bringing a burst of severe weather before monsoonal break conditions resume early next week.


Finally, on the east coast, watching very closely the impact of the onshore southeast to easterly winds in combination with low pressure along the NSW and QLD coasts will provide showery weather, but how heavy comes down to the placement of the trough along the coast, the wind bearing feeding the trough out of the east which will come down to the placement of the high east of VIC. So a few elements to watch in this region as we get closer into the weekend and this time next week.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is now easing for the southern states as drier air moves in and takes control in conjunction with a high pressure ridge passing through southern Australia. This will move the moisture northwards and take it back to where it should be, that is through far eastern NSW and QLD through the tropics. So from the latter part of the week, much of the inland and south should be dry and this looks to continue into next week with low pressure troughs retreating northwards. So by the weekend, heavier rainfall will located over the Kimberly, Top End and Cape York and perhaps along the east coast with the onshore winds and a trough working together to bring a wet spell into play. The monsoon trough over the north of the nation looks more likely to lift northwards of the nation, this could see tropical lows form over open water in the medium term, so forecasts over the north may change rapidly. So a quieter period on the way, but this does lead into a wetter end to February.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are likely to continue on and east of a trough through SA, VIC and into the ACT and NSW. Storms have a high chance of producing heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and damaging winds. For northern areas of the nation, through the central NT and into QLD, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is a very high risk with thunderstorms. A monsoonal low over northwest WA will begin to move southeast and take the severe weather risks through central areas of the state and possibly into the far north of SA. Thunderstorms over the Top End and Cape York may be gusty with damaging winds.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

A flush of dry air over southern areas of the nation will see the storm risk contract north and east out of the southern states with high pressure ridging in. Thunderstorms on and north/east of a trough through NSW, SA and WA will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe with heavy rainfall and flash flooding the main concern. The monsoon trough will continue to trigger squally showers and storms over the northern tropics with the possibility of damaging wind gusts.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms continuing to contract northwards out of NSW as drier air develops over the south and central areas of the nation. The storms over the tropics also moving northwards with the monsoon trough also moving northwards out of Central Australia leading to drier and more stable weather developing for the desert country.

Tropical Depression Watch This Week

Heavy rainfall of 300-400mm has been reported over the Northwest of the nation with flooding of deserts and the outback continuing. The tropical low is set to move west and then become slow moving tomorrow then turning south and weakening. The weather over the northwest will remain very wet for the next 2 days. Another set of tropical lows may develop over the weekend and into next week as the monsoon trough moves back over the region and then offshore northwards.

National Flood Risk - This Week - January 30th through February 4th 2022

Excessive moisture levels at near record levels will result in rainfall mirroring that, at record levels where low pressure is present. At the moment, we have an active area of low pressure over the heart of the nation in combination with the monsoon trough and that is expected to drive heavy rainfall and flooding through the areas outlined in darker green. Remember, you do not need it rain at torrential levels for you to experience flooding impacts in your community or region. The rainfall will gradually move south and the moisture then propelled eastwards, in combination with another trough, taking the heavy rainfall risks towards northern SA and then far northern NSW and southwest QLD. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding in addition to the moderate to major flooding in place already. Much of the NT has seen above average rainfall in the past few months and this rainfall if it verifies will see flooding become even more extreme in some areas down the Stuart Highway between Tennant Creek and Marla. The rainfall will contract north to the tropics by next week with a drier picture for the second week of February likely at this stage, with the focus of heavy rainfall shifting to the east coast of NSW and QLD and through the far northern tropics.

DATA - Refer to video for more details on the short and medium term break down on the GFS.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More information on the daily breakdown in the video - but this pressure pattern carries a low confidence.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Because the surface pressure pattern carries a low confidence, that means the elements do as well, including the moisture distribution through the nation. It will be drier through the southern and southeast of the nation.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information. - This is a very low confidence forecast.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information - this is much closer to the post for the short term but also low confidence from about the day 6 range onwards.

Once again on a travel schedule for one more day then back to the normal run of details from Wednesday as I return back to Darwin. If you are in the NT and know of any other people that may utilise this service and would like for me to do a site visit and consult please email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org