MOISTURE UPDATE FOR THE MEDIUM TERM.

Updated: Jul 9, 2021

Very quick note supplementing the post made earlier today about the 2 week outlook


The evening update from the modelling support the continuation of rainfall over parts of southern and western Australia into the day 7-16 range, with some increasing signals for moisture to increase over the Indian Ocean. That moisture still looks likely to sweep southeast into WA and then onto SA and NSW/VIC.


This caused by more of a wavy flow within the jet stream bringing the moisture further south than this week coming, meaning more rainfall chances loom in the medium term.


GFS 00Z Ensemble - Rainfall for the next 16 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021.

Note the rainfall derived from the Indian Ocean in the second week, following the week of frontal weather next week. This could supply widespread follow up falls for WA, SA, VIC, NSW and maybe QLD again in the third week of July.

GFS 00Z Deterministic - Rainfall for the next 16 days - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021

Note the moisture plume over the Indian Ocean in the second half of this clip, this has been a constant them for this period for a number of days now. Other modelling also supports this movement of moisture from northwest through to the southeast.

GFS 00Z Precipitable Water Values - Days 7-16 - Valid Thursday 8th of July 2021..

The moisture values in the medium term are running high and frontal weather is ready to collect it. Some interesting signals for those looking for more follow up rainfall and for some, JUST RAINFALL!

More to come on this during the coming days. Tomorrow I will have a climate update for the next 4 weeks in line with the latest data sets released.