Further to morning weather update, the models are going to spread the moisture far and wide and shift it from run to run which is going to be frustrating for those forward planning but for those needing rainfall, it is a good sign that the Indian Ocean is starting to wake up right on schedule!
The impacts will likely rapidly increase in August and into Spring as outlined in the week of posts (when you come to the front of the blog page, click the drop-down menu and select Climate Weather or use the search function and type in Spring 2022).
Here are the previous runs of the GFS showing you the moisture is being analysed, but the location of that moisture is shifting from run to run.
GFS SATURDAY EVENING - MOISTURE ANOMALIES
GFS SATURDAY AM - MOISTURE ANOMALIES
This will be the elements to watch this week for the medium term.