MOISTURE IN THE MEDIUM TERM

The east of the nation is under another soaking tonight and for Friday and then QLD through Saturday. But for those over the Agricultural areas of SA and through to the northwest of VIC and western NSW, it has still been very lean.


So when is the next rainfall coming?


I have alluded to in the National Wraps today and in the Climate Forecasts and discussions here and here and here the moisture from the Indian Ocean will eventually come down and give most parts of Australia a soaking at least a handful of times before the year is out.


In the short to medium term, those soakings obviously over the east of QLD (the driest time of the year climatologically speaking) and over the southwest and west of WA over the next week, signify that the opportunities should continue to roll.


Remember blocking high pressure systems? Where are they? I don't think we have had one sit in the Bight for a long while, which is another signal to focus on, this is a different year again.


I have attached the latest 06z GFS data sets as an interim before focusing on the main suite of models tomorrow, just to keep the conversation going on the moisture out of the northwest being the important trigger for rainfall for areas mentioned at the top.


Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 weeks - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

Another way of looking at PW Values/Moisture is through this colour scheme, blue is the dry air, red is the moist air. You can see plenty to work with, but can it be utilised by frontal weather during the course of the coming fortnight?

Surface Pressure Pattern - Valid next 2 weeks - Thursday 1st of July 2021

Rainfall will be mainly coastal if you believe this, but I do believe that with the moisture floating about in the above, that more broader rainfall will be analysed, such as the eastern inland event that has emerged in the past 24 hours for about 7-8 days from now over the eastern inland. That is a logical forecast given the state of the atmosphere.

Rainfall for the coming 2 weeks - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

The trend for coastal rainfall is strong, but keep an eye on the southern and eastern inland where rainfall numbers may begin to stack up. For Ag SA there is about 10-30mm in the next 2 weeks with frontal weather, it could be a lot more if one of these fronts gets involved with moisture and a cloud band.


Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

Might have to start increasing numbers for parts of southern SA and southeast SA with this lead low pressure system coming through during the next 48hrs and then again for the rainfall coming out of SA later next week. Stay tuned.


The rainfall will come, and it may be a matter of too much too quick! So will have to keep an eye on this particular parameter closely in the coming weeks to see if my thoughts seem to verify.


Weather forecasting is not perfect and I am the first to admit that, but being able to place all ideas and solutions on the table, then being able to sort through what is likely and what is unlikely can make the picture a little clearer, rather than going for the most salacious click bait items that are out there.


Need more weather information?? I can help you out if this analysis is not thorough enough for you - email me for tailored forecasting at karllijnders@weathermatters.org for more details.

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