MODELS AND THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL - LOTS OF MOISTURE ABOUT - DOES THAT EQUAL MORE HEAVY FALLS?

Lets get straight into the data sets - I know that people want me to put a blurb and explainer under each of the data sets, but I will only comment when I think there is a) plausibility to the data set and b) the chance of the data set verifying being high.


There is plenty of weather in the short and medium term that does need to be monitored. So lets take a look.


SHORT TERM

Showers clear the southeast and really the nation is becoming very much settled and dry, interior north of a line from Carnarvon through Alice Springs and to about Hervey Bay may remain dry through to the weekend with moisture slowly returning to northern areas, but not all models support this idea, but that is my read of the data sets overall. The bulk of the wet weather will be found through eastern and southern WA Thursday and then this weather increasing Friday before moving into SA and then into VIC by Saturday with modelling suggesting the falls could be heavy along the journey of the low pressure and trough. The rain periods and thunderstorms then move into NSW on Saturday night into Sunday with the heavier rainfall the further south you go. Another low pressure system is expected to form over interior parts of the nation with divergence on where that system goes and how much moisture gets involved. The tropics will see showers and storms from later this week but the coverage improves during the weekend.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - LOW CHANCE

MEDIUM TERM

The secondary low pressure system that forms over interior parts of the nation has the chance of following the first low in bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms over the interior and areas of rain and thunderstorms for QLD and NSW, this system may bypass much of SA and VIC. The rain could be heavy once again over the eastern inland. The showers and thunderstorms over the northern tropics will increase next week until the end of the month with tropical waves approaching from the east and may increase rainfall chances. Another deep surge of moisture may run down the western side of the nation into another trough triggering showers and storms with uneven distribution of rainfall continuing. There have been hints of a major rainfall event for the eastern states with a deep inland low forming over QLD/NSW. This is off the table tonight but do not be shocked if that does reappear in future updates.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - LOW CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE.

Moisture has a high chance of producing significant rainfall over southern and eastern areas but specific forecasting is not possible right now - however if you are in a flood area be weather aware and across forecasts this weekend.

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - HIGH CHANCE.

This is probably closest to the post in terms of the forecast in the coming 10 days and poses a significant issue for flood zones and more above average rainfall for many areas starting this weekend.

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE.

Disorganised ideas from this model but has the coverage of rainfall right given the PW values available and low pressure in phase.

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Watch the systems next week following the weekend event, the wildcard systems I spoke of in the medium term update are showing up on this product this evening.

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - LOW CHANCE

The medium term offers deep moisture and low pressure - the GFS tonight has not rendered that information correctly, but the ensemble data shows the coverage better.

ENSEMBLE DATA

Still think that using these data sets is overlooked too often and are much more conservative in terms of detail and totals, but they are reliable. CMC is still leading the pack in terms of consistency and accuracy in the medium term at this time and I am leaning towards that data set.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - HIGH CHANCE

This is the closest to the post with the recognition the tropics start seeing an increase in moisture. The high temperatures this week will be replaced by natures air conditioner next week with rainfall increasing and the risk of tropical lows developing.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

LONG TERM

This also has been very consistent in the past 6 weeks and the additional rainfall is of concern for those facing flooding issues this week.


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

Very wet weather expected to develop nationwide and watch the monsoonal activity up north of the nation in the coming weeks. The purple shading is heading south.

The ensemble data is still persisting with a wet east coast and the monsoonal rainfall developing from the north.

More weather information coming up after 7am EDT Tuesday.

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