MODELS AND THE RAINFALL - PM WRAP

Lets take a look at the full suite of modelling regarding the all important rainfall for your part of the world.


HEADS UP - POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK FOR SOUTHEAST NSW AND NORTHEAST VIC

Rainfall totals across most model agencies could support falls over 50mm across saturated catchments leading to a flood risk. Stay up to date with the forecasts and analysis.

AREAS OF CONCERN NEXT 10 DAYS



My analysis based on the latest data you can see and the probability next to each agency.


SHORT TERM


ICON - Rainfall Next 5 Days - HIGH CHANCE

Dry weather next 5 days. Showers develop for the southwest of WA from Sunday with possible thunder. A weak front brings showers into TAS and VIC. Otherwise for most areas a big bag of nothing.

UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - HIGH CHANCE

Taking it a few days further and you can see the moisture build up in the day 6-7 window over the east with scattered showers and storms for inland QLD and showers drifting along the NSW coast with a slow moving southeasterly change. The southwest should see increasing showers early next week.

LONG TERM


CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE.

After the dry spell the trough from QLD allows moisture to surge south and southeast through NSW and VIC ahead of a trough that will also be bringing unsettled weather for southwest parts of the nation. The moisture bypasses most of SA, and the trough from WA will move through in dry fashion, until it finds the moisture surging south from QLD into NSW and VIC, and storms and showers will likely break out. A follow up system brings further rain to SWLD of WA during the day 7-10 window.

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE.

Discussed in your state based forecasts tonight but similar ideas to CMC and GFS, it is just a matter of placement in terms of rainfall for the southwest of WA and southeast and east of the nation. Dry weather over much of the nation if this verifies however, as stated tonight in the PM update tonight there is moisture to work with in the dry areas of Central Australia and SA. So this forecast will likely change.

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - LOW CHANCE

Rainfall becomes more widespread over the southeast and eastern inland of the nation according to KMA with a trough out of the west combining with copious moisture in the east. A low pressure system spins up south of Adelaide and moves slowly east meaning the rainfall lingers for a number of days for VIC, NSW and southern QLD. Showers and storms break out over the NT in early October. Also watching moisture offshore WA into early October.

GFS - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE.

Updated in the last 20 minutes showing heavy falls through NSW and VIC and retrograding back through SA with better coverage, see if that holds through the morning. Reasonable rainfall in the SWLD of WA. The rainfall in the east looks thundery and if this does verify, some areas could see minor to moderate flooding through northeast VIC and southeast NSW west and north of the divide.

ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE.

Wet signal continues for the east and is extending back further west than what the deterministic data suggest so if you are living in SA pay attention to the forecasts in the coming few days. Do not write anything off in this weather game, as it can be feast or famine overnight in model land, but the broader data sets are in good agreement. Good falls for SW WA and into southern QLD welcome. Maybe a bit too much for southern NSW and rainfall returns to the Top End during early October.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE.

Broadly wet over the east with the bias towards an easterly flow, multiple troughs and slow moving pressure pattern bringing multi day rainfall events. The rainfall over SA in this data set coming up and remaining steady over WA from previous data sets.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - LOW CHANCE.

A little drier than the other modelling but it is tending towards the wetter signal over the southeast west of the ranges. Not so sure about the drier picture further west at this time but will watch trends. The rainfall less than what it is showing in the deterministic 10 day run for QLD so again there will be chopping and changing. This model expressing more uncertainty than the others in the data sets at this time.

More updates tomorrow from 7am.

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