MODELS AND THE RAINFALL - FINALLY WE ARE SEEING THE DISCUSSION FOR 2 WEEKS, PLAYING OUT.

Well it has been a long journey of tracking this event from about the first week of June and here we are, significant risks of widespread above average rainfall over the northern and northeastern parts of the nation is on the way. We could see this rainfall spill further south and southeast through the nation if frontal weather times itself well this week.


However, does it continue? Some chances of it continuing are rather high. We have a large cold front passing well south of the nation later this week into next week and as mentioned through previous updates, the northern flank of this could shear off colder air northwards and this cut off into low pressure development.


IF that happens then we will see the rainfall over the eastern inland extend to the southeast inland.


Out west, signals are there for rainfall to return in the first week of July, but the scale of that is to be determined this week.


Let's take a look


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The GFS continues to increase rainfall through eastern Australia which is representing the positive SAM phase that is underway in the Southern Ocean, leading to the high pressure moving south and supporting easterly winds developing. A large tropical surge of moisture is now moving southwards into the southeast and eastern inland bringing more widespread rainfall and this could lead to well above rainfall for areas that are normally dry. Seasonal rainfall totals overall for southern Australia but it will be a slog to get there with periods of dry.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The CMC is even wetter than the GFS which is going for a larger east coast rain event thanks to the positive SAM. This extends over VIC and also better rainfall back into southern Australia. The model also sees the rainfall developing over the Indian Ocean with the moisture sweeping towards WA ahead of developing cold fronts in the medium term, the westerly wind belt will return.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - LOW CHANCE

The weather over the course of the period is complex and we are seeing that with the emergence of higher rainfall quite rapidly amongst most of the models moving through the short term. So wettest weather in the east, variation of that rainfall spread over the southeast and confidence not as high in the presence of an upper low and over the southwest, drier for a while, but the rainfall looks to return as we move into the medium term. Tropical moisture still running very high through the period.


LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The signals are very wet for large areas of the nation, this signal has been like this for more than 2 years now! It is exceptional! And for some areas of the nation, it has verified with record rainfall this year. Noting that the rainfall will return from the west and influenced by the warmer than normal SSTs for this time of year.

Early birds, the next update is from 5am EST and a look at the systems to watch through the short term. Lots on weather wise today, and check out the weather video from 8am EST.