MODELS AND THE RAINALL FOR THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM.

A quick wrap tonight of all the models and the rainfall output of the data sets as they are.


SHORT TERM

All models initiate the rainfall from Central Australia and pass it through to the east and southeast over the course of Sunday through Tuesday. The issue is around timing of the front, how fast it moves through and whether a low pressure system forms over the eastern inland, does it form in NSW or QLD? That remains to be seen. Otherwise the only other event on the board for the short term will be the cold front passing over SWLD during Monday which creates the secondary low over the southeast mid to late next week.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

The rainfall is likely to amplify over northeast NSW and southeast QLD with a northward moving southerly change on Monday. The rain in the east comes in two events. Good spread of rainfall through the outback to the Top End. The west will see showers early in the piece then things turn dry. Probably a little too dry for SA.

MEDIUM TERM

The medium term offers another trough and low in the southeast during mid to late next week with a leading trough bringing the chance of severe storms through the southeast initially and then NSW and QLD this time next week. Some models also want to deepen a low pressure system off the east coast in the day 8-10 range. Others do not. The weather out west is generally dry for now. The tropics active throughout the viewing period.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Talking about those wild card systems today, the east coast is one area to watch in this fortnight period.

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE

Too wet over SA for now.

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE.

Rain too heavy over the northeast of NSW with the lead system.

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - LOW CHANCE

Too wet over QLD under current guidance and too wet over the SWLD of WA.

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - MODERATE CHANCE.

Again watch the east coast in the medium term into mid month for a chance of a low forming along the coast. The weather over the west turns dry from Tuesday and stays relatively dry for a while. The north turns active. Three systems in 15 days for the southeast and east.

ENSEMBLE DATA

Again the bias of rainfall across all the ensemble data is supportive of a wet phase unfolding for the eastern and southeast states and across the tropics. That carries a high chance, but who gets what comes down to individual systems. So while it looks wet, different areas will be the focus of rainfall with each event, but this could change. So stay up to date.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE

This is too dry on current deterministic output.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) HIGH CHANCE.

Has not changed in recent days and has picked the rainfall for this period well in advance of other models.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE.

Coming more into line with CMC. Which is rare.

LONG TERM

There are concerning developments in the longer term regarding the wet phase and the potential flooding that could develop IF the below verifies over the east. The west likely to see less frequent rainfall and SA will be seeing the rainfall frequency pick up over inland areas. The tropics, well above average in terms of rainfall.


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE.

Control Member - MODERATE CHANCE

More details coming up on Saturday morning.