MODELS AND THE IMPENDING RAINFALL EVENT IN THE SOUTHEAST, CENTRAL AND EASTERN INLAND.

Lets take a look at all the modelling that is available surrounding the rainfall event and my notes underneath each.


Firstly I posted this in the Severe Weather section, but the Spring rainfall is already leading to flooding over parts of VIC and NSW once again this week, and it is only 2 days into the season. So it could be certainly something to watch if you live in a flood prone area over the east and southeast in particular to start with.


As mentioned on regional radio this week, if you happened to hear me in the mornings, the weather is likely to lead to flooding over the coming weeks due to saturated catchments and rainfall heavy at times as fronts pass through the southeast and east. The flooding also enhanced by the snowmelt which is still very deep over top of the range.



ACCESS

Rainfall looks to explode along the upper trough as it runs into deeper moisture as it tracks east through the eastern parts of SA through Western NSW and into Central VIC. There may be some heavy falls leading to areas of flash and riverine flooding over parts of Northeast VIC and into SE NSW. The rainfall clearing the southeast through the weekend, and does not develop the system into a low. The rainfall over Central Australia, some of the heavier September rainfall we have seen in years. Next week drier.

UKMET

Rain like ACCESS, explodes as the trough interacts with the moisture coming in from QLD through NSW and into VIC. Note the same spread of rainfall throughout the southeast inland and across the ranges. Some reasonable falls getting back into SE SA with the cold air passing through as well. Outback rainfall a little further north through the NT but most of the rainfall should be over and done by early next week with dry air returning.

CMC

Rainfall again very good agreement with the bulk of the falls coming through NSW and southern and central VIC with heavy falls over the Northeast of VIC as well with the rainfall spreading into NSW across the weekend, the best of it falling over the southeast inland west of the divide and up through the Upper Western if this verifies. The rainfall over the Outback of the NT is nearer to Alice Springs than other models. Once the rain is through quiet and seasonal under high pressure.

KMA

Heavy rainfall developing along the same location, good agreement as above, the heavy falls over the North East of VIC could total 100-150mm of rainfall with flooding likely. The rainfall lighter back through SA. Outback rainfall again in fairly good agreement with other models with moderate to heavy falls developing under the trough as it moves north. Otherwise once the rain is done next week, it turns quiet as high pressure takes over.

GFS

Has the rainfall intiating a little further east over NSW and into VIC, with heavy falls over Northeast VIC with possible flooding. Also develops a low on the front Saturday for southeast areas of NSW and eastern VIC. The rainfall over the outback productive for this time of year. Otherwise things turn dry next week under a large high.

Euro.

The Euro like the GFS, initiates the rainfall a little further east over NSW and VIC, with heavy falls possible for Northeast VIC and Southeast NSW over the Alpine areas. The rainfall extending back over the Northwest of NSW into Central Australia is more in tact with moderate falls expected. Otherwise once the system is through, most of next week is dry and seasonal.

ICON

Like the GFS and Euro, develops the rainfall further east through NSW and VIC with moderate to heavy falls over the Northeast of VIC and Southeast of NSW. Some moderate rainfall extending back over the Outback via the Upper Western of NSW could also drop over 1 months rainfall. Next week another front could bring further rainfall back to the southwest of the nation but this is the only model showing decent falls.