MODELS AND THE IMPENDING RAIN EVENT.

Seeing as this is the most sought after information from me - rainfall and models - here is how it is shaping up for incoming rainfall event later this week into the weekend.


RAINFALL FOR THE COMING SYSTEM


GFS

Latest GFS has shifted the rainfall a little further east through the southeast with heavy falls and a flood risk possible for the northeast of VIC and southeast of NSW west of the divide. Something to watch. GFS has shifted the rainfall focus away from the southeast of QLD and northeast of NSW in this run and that is now supported by the other models below. So starting to get that bit more clarity as the system is tracked in real time, the data being fed back into model data and the consistency is improving.


Euro

The rainfall comes down in the next 5 days for the southeast and east, but the Euro concentrates the rainfall through southern VIC and out through southeast NSW. A band of moderate rainfall will extend back through the western inland of NSW through to Central Australia. The weather turns dry for southern parts of the nation next week as high moves in. The Euro is not on board with the idea of rainfall spreading throughout the nations east, rather keeping benign pattern in place.

KMA

Heavier rainfall smear is expected over NSW and VIC, that will see the bulk of the soaking rainfall for the eastern states and that extends back up the boundary through western NSW into southern and central NT. This model has a little more rainfall for southeast SA. The overall trend is to have the rainfall break down as it moves into QLD like the Euro with high pressure coming in behind the front keeping things dry and stable with dry air moving north with cooler air spreading throughout the nation.

UKMET

Largely unchanged from last night, but has introduced heavier rain back into southeast SA this evening and more widespread falls over the outback. Heavy rainfall over the southeast with the front passing through with moderate to heavy falls developing about Central and Eastern areas of the nation with the trough. Light rainfall to extend further north into eastern inland QLD but also showing no follow up rainfall on the east coast as per the Euro. Dry back over the west and southern areas following the front with high pressure passing through.

ACCESS

High resolution model and it shows falls over 100mm for parts of NE VIC which is quite possible given the thermal dynamics, rainfall like that on the snow, will see flooding develop for northeast VIC into southeast NSW. Models starting to introduce more rainfall for southern SA which is something to watch, with heavy rainfall in scattered pockets over western NSW spreading east as the front rolls into the deeper moisture surging in from the northeast. Rain and storms over outback NT with moderate to heavy falls possible through the weekend before the high comes in with drier southerly winds, this leading to clearing conditions. Again the models aligning with the Euro suggesting drier weather with the high dominating next week.

CMC

Rainfall not as heavy or widespread with a front passing through from west and rolling into the moisture over NSW and VIC, again the heavier falls will be located here, though if this is to be believed, the better coverage will be through southern and eastern VIC. The rainfall extends along the slow moving boundary as it moves north with rain heavy at times over the Outback. Once the high moves in, it will be dry over the south and southeast. CMC does suggest some light rain with onshore easterly winds developing next week.

ICON

The latest ICON has ramped the rainfall up through eastern VIC and into southeast NSW, with potential flood risk for the region IF this verifies. The model has shifted the rainfall further east, suggesting the front is moving faster. Next to no rainfall for large parts of SA and QLD with the inland rain over the NT not as widespread with the boundary weaker. But this model does not have the greatest skill score. But it is something to watch.

And so for the fun part of forecasting, I did post this three weeks ago on social media about the movement of moisture during this time frame. Got the influence area right.

More tomorrow.

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