MODELS AND RAINFALL WRAP - PM EDITION

I will be posting these 2 times a day this week because of the rapid changes in the modelling and trying to find that common signal across the data sets.


With the tropical weather becoming more active, this can play havoc with the rainfall projections across the board so this needs to be factored into assessing the modelling.


Low confidence forecasting sadly continues across the board as well.


Lets take a look


SHORT TERM

The short term offers rainfall for the north and the east of the nation. The heaviest falls over the north of the NT through to QLD and then down the east coast of NSW into the ACT. There may be scattered falls for VIC with a trough from tomorrow through Wednesday but large parts of SA and WA should remain dry through this week with increasing temperatures.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days

Rainfall as mentioned above, more concentrated across the north and through the eastern inland through to the southeast and there may be some moisture creeping southwest through WA from the northern tropics. Large parts of SA and WA into western NSW and VIC will go dry this week.

MEDIUM TERM

Models diverge and offer solutions across the board, there is very little in the way of consistency in the products tonight, this happens often at this time of year and when monsoonal weather is approaching northern Australia. You will see this again during January and February as well. The south and west mostly dry and hot, with the unsettled weather likely over the north and east of the nation as we track moisture through these regions in combination with low pressure troughs. These troughs are being presented in different locations from run to run from product to product which is why they are so different.

Therefore they all carry a very low confidence at this time.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days

Moisture is deeper over the north and less over the east, this model running way too dry for the nation as a whole.

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days

This is probably closer to the post for the eastern portions of the nation given the dynamics of the trough through the region but otherwise the rest of the nation carries a lower confidence at this time. Ignore the tropical low that passes near Oenpelli in the outlook period.

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days

This is pretty similar to CMC but has been rather erratic with the tropical weather and the ongoing influence of the more active weather for the northern states. So for now it carries a low confidence.

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days

Probably the most aggressive across the board but not impossible given the moisture rolling through the north and east but it comes down to the moisture syncing with the low pressure to produce more widespread rainfall and thunderstorms. The west and south looks drier and the moisture running through WA will come down to the placement of the tropical weather.

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days

Lifts the heavier rainfall into QLD and northern NSW where other models favour the rainfall and thunderstorms to be in NSW and the ACT this week. Tropical weather looks largely similar to other models but the placement of the troughs will determine who gets what.

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days

Way too dry over the course of 2 weeks. Has the moisture but no organised trigger to lift it into widespread rain events.


ENSEMBLE DATA

The ensemble data is more useful and does keep the bias of rainfall over the north and east, however they do also diverge from product to product. So these too carry a low confidence.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members)

Too dry across the nation.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members)

Leaning more towards this solution and has probably been the most consistent product across the board.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members)

Fairly similar to the CMC, the CMC has picked this pattern first and again, the Euro has followed suit. This idea is plausible. The deterministic is much drier.


LONG TERM

This has probably been the most consistent product with the wet signal continuing. If the weather is expected to be this wet, then the shorter and medium term may be wetter than what it is leading on.


GFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks

The GFS places the more active monsoon in the Pacific in this run, which may increase rainfall chances for the east. The nation looking at a humid and unsettled period.

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks

The CFS has the monsoon over the north but mainly over the Pacific Ocean. Wet bias still for the north and east with moisture running through the nation from northwest to southeast once the monsoon becomes established.

More coming up from 7am EDT. This will be updated again from 9am EDT.

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