MODELS AND RAINFALL WRAP

A very active period of weather continues to unfold in the real time, several pockets of severe weather observed today, mainly for wind and heavy rainfall issues across the south and east. More of that is to come.


A much more organised batch of rain and thunderstorms will sweep through the east on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday and then increase again Thursday through the weekend with the chance of heavy falls leading to flash and riverine flooding.


Severe weather is likely in the coming week relating to heavy rainfall, thanks to the copious moisture in the upper atmosphere and deep instability values passing through.


Lets wrap the data sets tonight


SHORT TERM

A decent slab of moisture is set to be lifted into areas of showers and thunderstorms for the eastern states on Sunday with locally heavy rainfall for ACT, NSW and QLD. Another trough over Central Australia extending into the east of WA is also likely to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall about. The tropics also active with numerous showers and thunderstorms. With the rainfall being derived from thunderstorms, your rainfall totals will vary based upon the convective nature of the rainfall. There will be a larger, more organised batch of showers and storms for NSW and QLD on Tuesday with a trough intensifying in response to a small low pressure system that forms south of VIC. Over in the southwest, at the same time we have a deep low pressure system form on the base of a trough which will trigger rain and thunderstorms for the SWLD with the chance of more above average rainfall. Flash flooding is expected to feature with these systems.


IF YOU ARE LIVING IN QLD AND NSW BE ON ALERT IN THE SHORT TERM FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING. IN THE MEDIUM TERM, NSW, QLD AND VIC SHOULD BE ON ALERT FOR RIVERINE FLOODING.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

This is a significant shift in the severe weather potential for QLD if this verifies. Pay attention to forecasts if you live in QLD and NSW!

MEDIUM TERM

The high moisture content and unsettled airmass is expected to move east through central and eastern areas as a high finally ridges into the south of the nation, flushing the moisture out of the southeast by the end of next week with storms and heavy rainfall contracts into QLD and NT with further moderate to heavy falls expected through the day 8-11 range. With a positive SAM phase in place, the weather is expected to remain widespread for QLD and NSW in onshore easterly winds and potential for further severe weather is moderate at this stage. The north of the nation will see the showers and thunderstorms continue, though some clearance for the central and western parts of the nation is quite likely with the high ridging through.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - LOW CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - HIGH CHANCE

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - LOW CHANCE

ENSEMBLE DATA

This continues to be useful data as it is a broader data set, the guidance is largely unchanged with the bias for the wettest weather over the northern and eastern areas of the nation. Again your number will vary.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) MODERATE CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

LONG TERM

The weather is becoming wetter now throughout vast areas of the nation, not just the eastern and northern areas.


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

Seriously wet signal for the east.

More coming up Sunday morning.

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