MODELS AND RAINFALL - WHAT LURKS BEYOND THIS WEEK OF WILD WEATHER REMAINS UP IN THE AIR.

As mentioned, the weather pattern is continuing to be very much of interest thanks to severe weather this week, but next week, further ingredients are in place to bring back further rainfall events over inland and coastal areas of the nation.


The weather over the western and southern parts of the nation is expected to be of low confidence with a higher confidence in weather forecasting remaining over northern and eastern areas.


That places the west and south in line for more widespread rainfall, and as we have seen from some of the deterministic data issued from some (not all) modelling, there could be wilder weather around mid-month.


I like to use these data sets below, as they represent the median of all the member output and allow you to see a broader range of solutions on the table, but the most likely outcome is represented below.


So, let's see if there is some consistency.


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 35 members) MODERATE CONFIDENCE

The rainfall spread from the GFS tonight for this period suggests a NEGATIVE SAM phase may continue through the middle of the month leading to more rainfall across the south and southwest of the nation. Rainfall chances may tick up over the north of the nation as moisture begins to seep southwards, which could spawn some elevated rainfall chances into the end of the month, could also head into the Coral Sea. But watching that very closely.

CMC - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 30 members) LOW CONFIDENCE

Widespread showers may persist over the southeast and south of the nation and possibly along the NSW and QLD coast with a low popping offshore. Noting the moisture lurking throughout the interior and extending back to the NW Indian Ocean. Noting the rainfall also heavier tonight than last night, offshore WA which signals that another wave of deep tropical moisture may be on the approach from mid month.

EURO - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 51 members)

The widespread showers over the southeast and south of the country looks to continue but not at the same energy as the GFS suggests. So there is some divergence in the guidance through this period. With moisture continuing throughout the interior, it may lead to further cloud bands hence the light rainfall shading over much of the interior. More than 10 members suggest inland rainfall returns.


LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks

I have covered off this period today through the Climate Outlook which you can find here - looking at the longer range in greater details so check that out here

More coming up from 5am EST with further information over on the Facebook page too.