MODELS AND RAINFALL - WHAT IS BEYOND THE COLD OUTBREAK ACROSS THE COUNTRY?

The weather has certainly been offering up some interesting rainfall events for this time of year. It is the event over the northwest of the country that has certainly sparked a lot of interest here yet not a whimper from the media outlets, happening over sparse areas with little consequence for the news cycle. But in the weather world, the rainfall and moisture content over the northwest of the country holds huge clues as to what is to come in the long range which I have touched on at great length and will continue to do so.


In the short term, we know we have a lot of wet weather in the southeast and up over the northwest, this will move around in the coming days before we see more rainfall developing through the westerly wind belt, via a cold front tapping into moisture spreading into the southeast and east once again.


Widespread rainfall may develop with a new cloud band over the Central and Eastern interior with some areas copping further above average rainfall potential, but the forecast confidence is not great when it comes to tracking the rainfall spread spread and impacts.


The broader data sets were excellent in picturing where the heavier rainfall would occur in the short term systems passing through the nation over the past week and continue to hold some interesting prospects for the coming 1-2 weeks.


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE

The forecast packages from the GFS are erratic and over the shop and will continue to maintain a low confidence forecast over the coming few days as the data on the Southern Ocean becomes a little clearer but still, further heavy rainfall for the northwest of the nation and over the southeast seems to be the most likely outcomes over the coming week and then further intrusion of moisture from the north and northwest is possible, that moisture north of Darwin needs watching!

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - LOW CHANCE

The CMC also adopting a drier southwest and southern interior of the nation which I am not buying just yet through the coming 2 weeks. Over the southeast and northwest is where you will find the higher probability of rainfall. Notice the moisture sitting off the NT too, which could be drawn southwards into QLD and NSW into the medium term. That is a viable idea.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Widespread rainfall is still forecast for the northwest of the nation and across the southeast in the short term. Some items to watch will be the moisture floating around into the next feature over the southeast this weekend, further inland rainfall with weak cloud bands over the weekends and into next week and the potential for higher-than-average moisture over northern Australia with troughing nearby leading to above average rainfall chances into the medium term. That could spark some rainfall for eastern areas of the nation as well. On the other side of the coin, how dry does some of the northern Ag Areas of WA become? Is this a pattern we are likely to see play out over Winter or just a period of divergence?

LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

Lots more influence from the Indian Ocean to come, but curiously we are starting to see a pattern in rainfall over in WA. I did mention this in the updates last week in the Climate forecasting that we could see a split in the moisture running through from the NW to the SE and cold fronts over the SWLD bringing down rainfall chances for parts of the Wheatbelt and Goldfields. While that is possible it is still low confidence forecasting and more to come on that tomorrow in the Climate Outlook.

More coming up from 530am EST for the early risers like me and then more weather information heading your way from 8am EST plus your climate information from 11am EST. Lots on throughout the day.