MODELS AND RAINFALL - WHAT DOES THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM HAVE FOR US?

Well as mentioned for quite some time, the season is set to get wetter as we go and this seems to be what is appearing on the short and more prominently in the medium term. The longer term models pose significant rainfall risks for eastern, northern and possible central Australia.


There is also the threat of severe weather as well over the eastern and northern Australia as well into the medium and longer term.


Lets look at the rainfall expectations.


SHORT TERM

Short term forecasting confidence is quite poor, the synoptic is messy and there and many moving pieces that could result in boom or bust rainfall results mid to late week over SA, VIC and NSW. The better chances of rainfall exists through the NT and QLD with multiple troughs on the board and moisture deepening as spoken about in your state based forecast.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - MODERATE CHANCE (only based on coverage of rainfall)


MEDIUM TERM

The medium term is a dog's breakfast so it is going to be down to the ensemble data to guide us for now. You can see the stress the modelling is under with the variation in upper level winds transporting moisture east, rather than southwards. Some modelling keep high pressure further north, others further south, again impacting on rainfall outcomes. Basically there is no skill in deterministic data and your apps will reflect that. You need to have the guidance to take you through over the coming days and careful analysis of all the parameters so stay tuned to the short and medium term forecasts daily.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - LOW CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - VERY LOW CHANCE

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - LOW CHANCE

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

ENSEMBLE DATA

These data sets are more reliable for now, my rating for each next to the title. I am leaning more with the CMC solution, only because it has picked this wetter phase ahead of the other models. We will get more specific in the deterministic data later this week.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - HIGH CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE


LONG TERM

Soaking and flooding potential for the east and southeast on the cards, and it won't be a slow build up to riverine flooding. Catchments have dried a little through the southeast but not enough to lower the risk so be weather aware if you are living in a flood prone area in the east and southeast as conditions turn wetter again.


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

More weather details after 7am EDT.