MODELS AND RAINFALL - WE KNOW IT IS WET IN THE EAST BUT WHAT ABOUT THE SOUTH AND WEST? RAIN RETURN?

The broader data sets have been very clear in picking this rainfall event from about 3 weeks ago through northern and eastern Australia, and as we know, the rainfall is now unfolding. I am now going to focus on what happens beyond the east coast event and whether we see follow up over the east, or rainfall returns to seasonal values over southern and western Australia with the return of westerly winds.


I am now going to post below the rainfall for the medium term by itself, so for the 7 days from July 8th-15th to make it easier to see what is happening beyond the rain in the east which has gotten plenty of coverage today.


So, let's see what is happening throughout the medium term.


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall 7 Days - July 8th-15th 2022 (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE

The GFS is of low confidence with the members all over the shop tonight, but it has got lingering moisture over in the east with rainfall totals increasing over southern but more so over the southwest of the country where frontal weather will pack more of a punch. Still have excessive moisture and rainfall lurking just north of Australia which could come into play for the second half of July.

CMC - Rainfall 7 Days - July 8th-15th 2022 (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The outlook suggests rainfall may linger over in the east but members are supporting rainfall coming back via the westerly wind belt through this period with more seasonal rainfall expectations in relation to frontal weather running from west to east over southern WA through SA and into the southeast state. Rain may develop ahead of a stronger front moving through towards the end of the period over the east.

EURO - Rainfall 7 Days - July 8th-15th 2022 (median of 51 members) - HIGH CHANCE

We are seeing that once the easterly winds resolve over NSW and QLD that the rainfall should ease dramatically from the heights forecast this week and the focus of the rainfall should shift through the south of the nation via the westerly wind belt. Heaviest rainfall is expected to be over southern Australia but not to the levels expected over the northeast and east but the best of it will fall in areas exposed to the westerly flow. SA, your numbers could come up further so keep watching as moisture looks a bit better on some of the members tonight.


LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

Still looking at that rainfall increasing over the southern, central and western areas of the nation and additional rainfall coming into the east and along the north coast as well throughout the period, so the question will be, how quickly do we warm and does that lead to widespread rainfall emerging more frequently, or is the event we are seeing over the north and east a once off? Time will tell.

There is a lot to discuss in the short term, but many of you are waiting for your turn with rainfall so hopefully that gives you some insight. Make sure you check back daily.


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