MODELS AND RAINFALL - THEY HAVE BEEN INSTRUMENTAL IN PICKING THE EVENTS TO COME!

They are less popular and hardly spoken about because they do not generate the same level of hype that the more volatile and energetic single data sets express, in times of high complexity, they are useful in picking trends, which underpins watch zones here for weather related issues and then we can weed out fact from fiction.


In this case, it has been great to watch the models trending towards an idea which is, rainfall increasing over QLD during the course of the end of the month with higher values expected to continue southwards into NSW.  But how much of that rainfall spills west rather than going east or southeast is the question that will dictate this week.


Rainfall numbers over the course of the week are lower for southern areas and they will increased again as we move into the end of the month or early July as the SAM returns to neutral values before tending negative again.


The nation looking relatively warmer than where we have seen it in recent times, with a northwest flow developing on the western flank of high pressure keeping things drier over the interior, again typical for this time of year.


But remember this rule, the warmer it gets, the more moisture the atmosphere can hold and this will be a feature throughout late Autumn into Spring.


Lets take a look at the latest information


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE WEST, MODERATE CHANCE EAST.

Similar to this morning which is higher rainfall across the eastern coast of the country, more than what the deterministic run has suggested. Noting that the rainfall is also decreasing over the western and central interior, but I will review that further tomorrow as it is not well supported.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Looking at the CMC, the rainfall is elevated further from this morning and extends back to the eastern NT and this is a pattern that is continuing to strengthen, rather than contract eastwards. Rainfall returns back to the west of the nation into early July and showery weather off and on throughout the outlook period across Southern Australia.

CFS - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 4 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Noting that the CFS also sees the rainfall over the eastern parts of QLD and NSW. The rainfall over the southeast is also of interest and is expressing some higher rainfall potential.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The current output from the Euro has dropped away in confidence with a leaning towards rainfall backing through the NT and coming into QLD and then NSW and then coming into the west of the nation the numbers have come down with an adjustment to the forecast packages forecast to continue in the days ahead. Certainly the southeast looking at more widespread rainfall opportunities as we move through a vigorous westerly wind belt.




LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The rainfall is set to increase through July I suspect, and a dead giveaway will be the moisture sitting over the northern areas of the nation. Also watching the temperatures and whether they are above average across large areas of the nation, will also support this above average rainfall outlook. More on this tomorrow.

More coming up from 5am EST with a look at the weather systems to watch for those who are time poor, next video from 8am EST. Climate - Next 6 Weeks out from 11am EST and heaps more.