MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE WET WEATHER OVER IN THE WEST, WILL IT SPREAD EAST?

The drier signal for much of the nation's interior is forecast to unfold this week with the atmosphere resetting under a large ridge and dry air combining leading to a settled spell. The coastal areas over the southeast will see showery weather and we will see showery weather developing over the west coast with some moderate to heavy rainfall chances emerging out west.


It is that system that poses interest for the medium term with that moisture eventually being spread eastwards by the upper-level northwest winds. However the blocking mechanism for the moisture moving east will be the large scale high pressure system moving into the nation's southeast.


There is also a lot of moisture sitting up over the northern tropics that could begin to sweep south and southeastwards through QLD which will also be of interest, causing another cloud band to develop.


Let's take a look


FORECAST


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Showery weather over the southeast this week, showery weather over in the southwest and west from mid week onwards through the medium term. Curious to see what that heavy moisture north of the NT does and whether it is pulled south eventually. Noting the rainfall over the eastern inland is not as expressive as the single data sets shown in the videos tonight in your state based forecasts. Quieter week over inland Australia.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Numbers are coming up over the east coast, but I am not convinced of that given the signals from the climate drivers. The west looking wet and seasonal most elsewhere with ongoing showery weather for the southern coastal areas and a drier period inland with the high nearby.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members)

Note the other models have fallen into line with the Euro, which has remained consistent in the past few days and we are looking at rainfall remaining elevated in the southeast in the short term, more rainfall over the western parts of the country with a deepening trough and moisture sweeping through from the Indian Ocean. That rainfall will eventually sweep further east, how further east remains to be seen.



LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The rainfall prognostics over the next 6 weeks are very elevated with the risk of well above average rainfall for many locations as moisture folds over the nation from all directions. The extreme values are sitting offshore the NT and QLD. The higher rainfall events will begin from mid July onwards.

More coming up for the early birds from 530am EST to track the systems of interest on the way this week, the interesting weather will be that large scale feature over in WA.