MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE WET WEATHER FOCUS SHIFTS WEST, BUT FOR HOW LONG!?

The wet weather that has been dominating the east of the country through the past 2 weeks is easing slowly and contracting to the southeast coastal areas as forecast, with the long wave trough moving into the Tasman Sea.


The focus of wet weather has now moved to the west as a series of troughs and fronts, combining with deep moisture, leading to widespread rainfall developing over the course of the next week.


While the rest of the nation looks dry for the coming week, the question is, how long does it stay out west?


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE.

Similar to the CMC, the rainfall is now starting to creep northwards over southern Ag areas of the nation with the bulk of the rainfall expected over the western and southeastern parts of the nation in the sequence, but I would not be surprised if we see higher falls developing over the southeast inland and eastern inland. And that rainfall near 500mm north of the NT is anomalous and if verifies, could fuel higher humidity and more dry season rainfall and cloud cover in the weeks ahead.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - LOW CHANCE

I think the rainfall numbers will increase as we go through the coming days, but we are starting to see the rainfall shield lifting northwards in every run, and now covering most of the southern and western Ag Areas during the next week to two weeks.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - HIGH CHANCE

The latest Euro has got a larger mass of rainfall coming in like the GFS from the west in about 10 days' time and from about the 18-19th of the month, we should be seeing more widespread rainfall chances over SA, VIC, NSW and southern QLD possibly, with this being the next big chance for rainfall. The rainfall may also continue through the west of the country in the short and once again in the late medium term, as the SAM tends negative through the coming fortnight.

LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

Widespread rainfall expected to flare in response to the very high moisture loads over the northern and northeastern waters. The westerly wind belt likely to stand up frequently too, with heavy falls over those areas exposed to the westerly wind regime. The wild card features as mentioned, will be how much of that tropical moisture can be ingested into the frontal weather traversing the country. It may look drier compared to previous months for many areas, this is exceptionally wet for Winter!!!

More coming up tomorrow from 530am EST! Have a good nap!