MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS DAMP BUT WHAT DOES THAT WEST COAST SYSTEM DO NEXT WEEK?

The weather over the nation is typically winter like as we track further troughs and moisture through the interior and cold fronts over the southeast of the country with cold southwesterly winds and showery weather. For the remainder of the country, beyond the last of the inland rainfall, the weather is looking fairly settled and dry with high pressure anchored in the Bight.


We do have higher moisture values over northern parts of the country with moderate to heavy falls possible with thunderstorms. The moisture from the north may sweep south and southeast into NT and QLD.


We do have more moisture spreading through the west of the nation early next week and this may see a lot of cloud flare at times across the satellite, but rainfall looks light. The moisture profile over the Indian Ocean is forecast to deepen further and come southwards and eastwards with some higher chances of widespread rainfall spreading through the nation’s west and southwest with that likely to turn east later next week.


But how much is expected to turn eastwards and stay intact and bring follow up falls to SA, VIC, NSW and QLD? That remains to be seen, as does the amount of rainfall forecast for the SWLD of WA.


Let's see what the broader data sets have to say.


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The rainfall numbers a little closer to the post with more moisture coming back into the northwest and west of the nation with a system next week. The rainfall over the short term, from the Alice Springs region into the eastern interior of NSW/QLD along the border there, could be rather productive. The wettest part of the nation could be over the southeast coastal areas with an onshore flow for the coming 10 days

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - VERY LOW CHANCE

The rainfall across the nation is beginning to increase but the CMC is playing catch up compared to the other models with moisture way too low offshore the west and north coasts of the country.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members)

Rainfall numbers look more realistic for the nation, with better rainfall odds for large chunks of the inland, over the southwest of WA and heavier rainfall lurking offshore the areas hit hard in WA. The rainfall in the east is mainly short-term rainfall with the trough passing through and clearing this weekend. Noting more robust falls over the southeast with persistent southwesterly winds. The moisture over the northern tropics is quite astounding with very high values for this time of year, which could be pulled south and southeast in the medium term over QLD and the NT sparking more rainfall chances not shown here.

LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The moisture over the northern tropics is something to watch including the moisture that is sitting over the Indian Ocean. I covered that off this morning in the moisture to watch post this Winter 2022 and in the Climate Outlook yesterday. Looking seasonal in terms of rainfall for the SWLD but above average rainfall is expected to sweep through the nation from northwest to southeast on multiple occasions. The rainfall numbers over the east coast is interesting, not quite aligning my forecasts with the above average rainfall spread there. But it is not impossible.

More coming up in the early edition from 530am with a look at the systems of interest on the board and then the next video from 8am EST.