MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE SIGNALS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED ON THE BROADER SETS.

The overall trend in the modelling is largely unchanged as we try to make sense of the rainfall prognosis from the data sets across the country.


The frontal weather over the south through the short term offers some insights as to where the rainfall is likely to be in the coming 3-4 days.


But moving forward, trying to understand where the rainfall goes next week and into the weekend following remains completely up in the air and you can have a different solution depending on what model you use and when you look at it!


The broader data sets picked this major shift in rainfall projections last week, and they continue to show the rainfall spreading through northern and eastern Australia. Additional rainfall is expected to feature through the medium term as well with further instability available.


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE

The rainfall spread is much higher amongst the broader data sets but understand that some of the members are extremely wet and some are bone dry. Also picking up the shift to seeing rain and moisture back over western and southwestern parts of the country into early July. The southeast damp with frontal weather but SA could see below average rainfall through the period ahead of the wet weather coming back from the west.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - LOW CHANCE

Much wetter on the broader data set for QLD vs the single data set that is wetter over the NT, highlighting the divergence amongst members within the same agency. Noting the east coast is wetter still and that extends inland, and the west is drier, but we are seeing rainfall increasing for WA once again into July with moisture surging through the jet stream.

CFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 4 members) - LOW CHANCE

Noting the rainfall has shifted into NSW in this run in the medium term and the rainfall starting to increase over WA with a cloud band into July (the CMC has that as well). The moisture over the north of the nation is anomalous but certainly looking at a wetter bias remaining in the east for the end of the month and into July.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - LOW CHANCE

The Euro is a lot wetter still with the broader data set once again underpinning the uncertainty in the pattern in the days ahead so please be aware of the challenges moving forward in being able to bring you a reliable forecast, that is normal around the Solstices and also when the upper pattern is very much unsettled in areas that should be more settled. Anomalous weather events send the models into overdrive and expect that to continue, but numbers are coming up on the Euro.

LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks

Still looking very damp for many areas with multiple ports of moisture to work with. This will be discussed further tomorrow morning, but I will give this a moderate chance ((<40%) chance of verifying.

More coming up from 530am EST.