MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE SIGNALS ARE FOR A SOGGY NORTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTRY - DRY WEST.

The models have been very good at picking up this rainfall event, now over the past few days they have strengthened the signal for widespread and heavy rainfall developing along the trough as it moves through northern Australia. Also the models have finally started to come into agreement with the upper system that also gets involved from the south with falls coming up over NSW, mainly on and east of the divide, this now increasing in coverage over VIC.


In the west, the rest of the nation is looking very much settled and on the end of below average rainfall while the east and north look to be set to receive above average rainfall.


Let us see what is beyond the short term and whether we have a pattern flip developing for the west and south, leading to rainfall coming back for these areas.


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Significant rainfall is expected between Wednesday to Monday with extensive falls and well above rainfall also over tropical areas. Noting that 20/35 members have a deep east coast low running down the NSW coast with varying degrees of heavy rainfall, with some having the low further offshore, some along the coast, so standby. The rainfall tries to push further inland, and the GFS is extending the rainfall further west through QLD and NSW and into VIC in the latest run. Rainfall over the south and southeast of the nation and running back to the SWLD is with cold fronts that are emerging through the first week of July onwards.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The CMC not changing that much but understand the more specific heavier falls on the single data sets comes down to the placement of all the ingredients in the right position. The weather is forecast to be anomalous for rainfall through the next week over the north and east of the nation before the focus of rainfall shifts back to a traditional Winter time pattern supporting rainfall emerging through SWLD of WA and then into the east and southeast of the country.


EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - HIGH CHANCE

I am inclined to back this solution this evening with the rainfall coverage now reflecting the presence of the upper low over NSW and this invigorating a rain band over QLD and the NT and then this rain band starting to shift south and southwest into NSW and through to eastern VIC through the weekend. An upper level trough is forecast to bring rainfall back into the south east and eastern inland with moderate falls possible through the weekend. Some places over the northern and central inland of NSW could see another month’s worth of rainfall with lighter falls back to western NSW and nothing in SA at this stage from the event. Rainfall will clear the east and then develop over the west and along the southern parts of the nation as we track into the early part of July and this will resume a more typical weather pattern for this time of year.



LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

Some very large signals for that rainfall to be somewhat above average over many areas through July and into early August, that means that we will see the wavier flow pattern resume for southern Australia and moisture drawn back in from the Indian Ocean. The east coast will see widespread showers and storms in the short term with the major trough passing through, we could see another of those in between now and early August. Northern Australia, way too moist for this time of year and that will have impacts on inland rainfall developing above the norm.

More coming up from 5am EST with a look at the systems to watch for those who are time poor, and the next major video is expected to be available from 8am EST. Climate Outlook also available from 11am EST.

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