MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE RAIN EVENT HAS COMMENCED UP NORTH, THE UPPER LOW IS OVER NSW

Modelling starting to tighten up on the rainfall that is expected to sweep through the northern and eastern parts of the nation, with the chance of severe weather over the east coast of QLD and NSW with flash and riverine flooding the main concerns and the risk of flash flooding and minor riverine flooding under the trough over the eastern inland.


Beyond the event which clears from early next week, the rainfall should begin to return to southern parts of the nation with frontal weather developing from WA then moving into the southeast inland.


Some rainfall is expected to emerge once again over the eastern inland ahead of the long wave trough moving through the southeastern parts of the nation later next week but falls are expected to be generally light at this time.


Lets take a look at the active pattern.


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Heavy rainfall over the southern parts of NSW with an ECL and heavy rainfall over Central QLD extending into the SEQ coast with that rainfall leading to flooding in both regions. Heavy anomalous rainfall over the interior of QLD will contract through to the east over the weekend before stalling along the coast. Showers return to the southwest of the nation gradually through next week and that will extend into the south then southeast of the country with heavy falls restricted to coastal areas at this time with very little getting inland on current guide.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE.

Extensive rain in the east over the coming week with a chance of two major bursts of rain for QLD through that time and an ECL for the NSW coast with heavy rainfall extending into the Great Dividing Range and moderate rainfall inland. Anomalous rainfall over the NT will start to contract eastwards and clear from the weekend. Rainfall returns to the southwest and southeast of the nation through the latter part of next week with near seasonal rainfall expectations upon its return with no severe weather forecast at this time from that shift in the pattern.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - LOW CHANCE

The rainfall is probably a little too low for southern and Western Australia through the sequence with high pressure on this particular run holding firm through the two weeks for much of the region. I am not so sure on that. The rainfall bias does look very much to be over northern and eastern areas of the nation where anomalous rainfall chances are expected to feature strongly.

LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE.

Rainfall over the east coast is excessive and more representative of what is likely over the coming week but note the excessive rainfall in the Tasman and Coral Sea towards NZ. That will play out over Australia in Spring with force. The south of the nation looking at seasonal rainfall still for the most part, numbers ticking up a little for the southwest and southern coastal areas of WA. Moisture also expected to spread through the jet stream and into the southeast and eastern states from later July into August. The moisture over the northern waters of the nation still excessive.


More coming up in the early edition from 530am EST. Tomorrow I will be looking at where the rainfall is for western and southern areas of the nation.

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