MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE NUMBERS HOLDING STEADY WHICH IS GREAT NEWS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

The consistency amongst the modelling is good news for southern Australia, in terms of rainfall coming in through more traditional means. A cold front today moving through brought light falls to southern SA and that will push through to the southeast but highlights the shift in the pattern is underway.


The bulk of the rainfall as seen below is contained to the westerly wind regime and frontal weather passing through at pace with windy weather and showery weather also likely to develop as we move into next week.


All eyes on the Indian Ocean influence as well, as there are rumblings for cloud bands to develop once again with moderate rainfall forming over the interior of the country.


Further north, the drier weather is forecast to continue which is likely to lead to seasonal conditions, but this may not last for much longer as moisture surges over the north and west of the country.


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Very similar spread to the CMC below with the moisture coverage increasing throughout the period with widespread falls developing along and to the north of a westerly wind belt trying to move further northwards. How far north will determine the spread and intensity of the rainfall coverage as you move through to the end of the month over Southern Australia.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE.

The rainfall continues to increase in coverage over WA and especially over the SWLD. There is more moisture encroaching northern and northeast Australia as well as moisture surges southwards. The southeast eventually picks up on that rainfall and rainfall numbers along the east coast should start to ease for a period through later this week through next week.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE.

Very similar spread to the other models this evening but noting that the rainfall is higher over the east and southeast coastal areas and across the west coast of the nation. I think the rainfall is forecast to become more widespread than this as we see the systems being modelled more accurately in real time. A lot of what you see for southern Australia falls from next week so there is a lot of weather between now and then.

LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

Once again, the modelling as we move into August suggests those warmer waters surrounding Australia will be playing a large part in increasing rainfall totals nationally and will be the focus of tomorrow's update at 11am looking into the LONGER RANGE.

More coming up from 5am EST as we track the weather above, there is plenty riding on this for southern Australia.