MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE NUMBERS ARE CREEPING UP ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

That means we are looking at further moisture and low pressure combining over the nation, especially for southern areas from WA through SA and into the southeast states. The east coast may also see a few showers via onshore winds over the weekend as a low deepens offshore.


That low being well offshore to the east, will combine with a ridge over NZ and this could slow the progress of the strong front passing through the SWLD of WA during Friday as it moves towards SA later on Sunday into early next week.


How that impacts the system remains to be seen but one of two things could occur, with the front being pushed southwards and a weaker rain band moves through the southeast, but the more likely outcome is that the front slows down and a low form along the feature early next week somewhere over the southeast leading to more widespread showers and windy weather.


Into the medium term, we could see rainfall develop over northern and eastern parts of the nation with an upper trough interacting with moisture sweeping out of the northern tropics leading to patchy falls.


The southwest of the country should remain in the westerly wind belt with the ridge passing north of the SWLD leaving the door open to the west to southwesterly flow.


Let's a look at the model data this evening.


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE

About half of the members of the GFS are showing the rainfall event surging southwards from the NT into QLD and through to eastern NSW and VIC in the medium term, but the confidence in the rainfall event occurring is quite low. In the short term, the negative SAM continues to dominate the charts leading to frontal weather and rainfall rates remaining elevated for some parts of southeast and southwest Australia with lighter falls further north you go from the southern coast.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - LOW CHANCE

The broader CMC does not quite see the inland rainfall event that GFS members are seeing but it is increasing rainfall along the QLD coast. Noting the rainfall spread is far more generous along the west coast of WA with the SAM remaining negative, and this is also impacting large areas of the southeast as well, but lighter falls for the eastern inland for now.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE.

Noting the rainfall is fairly seasonal for southern parts of the nation and is following the highlights from the video this evening. Where the modelling is interesting is over QLD and NSW through the medium term where about 30/50 members suggest rainfall will develop from Cape York southwards through much of QLD and into NSW. That is gaining traction in the medium-term guidance, so will be interesting to watch over the coming days to see if it holds.


LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The moisture over the northern areas of the nation is the catalyst for a lot of the wetter forecasts nationally as we move into July and August, and this has been a persistent feature on the charts for about 2 weeks now. Do we see it venture south courtesy of an upper trough over northern Australia as some of the global models suggest or does it stay contained to the north of Australia? Meanwhile the southern parts of the country look active with the SAM remaining negative for a good chunk of the next 2-3 weeks.


More coming up from 530am for you early birds like me and the next video coming up from 8am EST.