MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE NUMBERS ARE BECOMING OUTRAGEOUS ON SOME MODELLING.

But as I keep saying, your number will change from run to run and the confidence in forecasting specific heavy rainfall areas is low if not near 0 at this time, so it is important to understand the limitations that this data can provide you.


However, I will point out the signal is for the rainfall and thunderstorm activity to continue over the course of the outlook period with some locations likely to be dealing with flooding and severe weather issues through the beginning of harvest and the potential for more rainfall to follow into the end of the month and through December too.


A lot riding on these forecasts being WRONG!!!


Lets take a look


SHORT TERM

There is good agreement on there being 2 events for southern and eastern Australia while the central and northern parts of the nation basically remain unchanged in the outlook period with widespread showers in record humidity and warm air. The rainfall totals could be heavy at times through the outback as advertised and the rainfall for the south and eastern states also could be heavy with many areas walking away with 1 month's worth of rainfall during this week. The weather then becomes difficult to pin down during the medium term.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - LOW CHANCE

MEDIUM TERM

We can see the rainfall becomes even more extensive on some of the data sets with that upper low that forms over WA, then a deep surface low emerges out of that feature as it tracks from WA into NT and SA then into QLD, NSW and VIC with the potential for heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms. Something to watch during the weekend into next week as we get closer to this event. Where it goes and the scale of the system still uncertain at this time.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - LOW CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - LOW CHANCE

ENSEMBLE DATA

Still the best data sets to use is the ensemble data which are still in excellent agreement with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall still anticipated for many states.

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) MODERATE CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) HIGH CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) MODERATE CHANCE

LONG TERM

This is still expected to be a very wet period for many areas of the nation, and no one place is looking to be dry for a long period of time away from the far west coast of WA.


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks




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