MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE NUMBERS ARE BECOMING MORE ROBUST THROUGH THE PERIOD

Returning back to the full medium-term outlook where we look at the 15-day rainfall output from modelling to show you how the weather is unfolding for all during the coming 2 weeks.


I outlined the 2-week outlook in greater detail earlier today so no use going over old ground, let's look at the latest evening data.


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE.

The rainfall numbers on the GFS deterministic from run-to-run changes, but this particular product remains largely unchanged from last night with deeper moisture surging throughout the westerly wind belt which may migrate further northwards than what the general modelling consensus suggests (modelling no matter what agency is JUST MODELLING). The forecast confidence for rainfall to spread through southern Australia more than eastern Australia is higher than the inverse right now and the risk of heavier falls in the southwest and southeast of the nation is also running high.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - LOW CHANCE.

The rainfall developing across the nation is forecast to increase from the west of the nation through the short term and some of the modelling is supporting a heavier rainfall event over the SWLD as a strong low move through next week. Eastern inland may be dealing with a multi-day storm outbreak along one of the troughs lingering next week as well. Heat values over the country are forecast to increase, that may support the instability values to support the rainfall spread below over the eastern inland. But it is looking for better rainfall wise across many areas that need a drop.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) MODERATE CHANCE

The Euro offers more rainfall than the GFS across the nation meaning that we will see further changes to the forecast packages surrounding the pressure pattern next week but the shift is on for the rainfall bias to be more pronounced in areas exposed to the westerly wind regime. The secondary feature, the moisture running through the jet stream to interact with frontal weather to increase rainfall for the eastern inland.

LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE.

Rainfall continues to show a gradual increase across vast areas of the inland and this is in line with the increasing temperatures, moisture profile and more instability working through the country from west to east. Now while the rainfall numbers will continue shifting around from run to run, the trend has been to increase rainfall totals as we move through August and into September, that idea is unchanged. Note the rainfall also over northern Australia too. Might have to bring back the NT forecasts soon!


More coming up from 5am EST with the early bird edition with an overview on what to watch before the next weather video from 8am EST.



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