MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE NATION DRIES OUT, WE FOCUS ON WHAT IS NEXT AND WHEN

A nice dry spell is developing for many areas that have been calling out for a dry spell and it is arriving this week, with a significant high, normal for this time of year, moving through slowly, and allowing the pattern to relax, leading to more settled conditions.


But how long does it last?


Rainfall emerges back in WA from mid-week, making that only rain event of significant note impacting larger populations. There is also the chance of a modest cloud band developing over the northern tropics with some further above average dry season rainfall possible.


The remainder, nice and quiet.


Let's take a look at the latest broader data sets.


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE

The weather is expected turn wetter in the west, but out of all the modelling this is the driest out of the set but noting the moisture lurking north of the NT is expected to play an interesting role in lifting humidity over northern and northeast Australia at times through the outlook. Also note that the large-scale rainfall event in the eastern inland through the medium term is not present here, only 2/35 members suggesting that a chance so I suspect that will be gone in the next run.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE.

The rainfall is increasing over the west in each update on this particular product, coming into line with the Euro which has been most consistent. May see some showers return to the east coast, but only once the high that brings drier weather to the southeast and central parts of the nation heads offshore the southeast inland and on the way to NZ. But the west is turning wetter once again.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - HIGH CHANCE

The rainfall is much more realistic on the basis of how much moisture is being spread across the nation's west over the course of the short and medium term. But there is a larger chance of further above average rainfall for WA through the period. Over in the east, some weak signals on about 5/50 members showing a rain event developing over the eastern inland but at this time, we are seeing the bulk of the rainfall focus shifting away from the east and back to the west with drier weather over the inland expected.


LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The westerly wind belt could become very active through the coming 6 weeks, but will the other models show that tomorrow? Latest 6-week outlook coming up from 11am EST tomorrow but certainly looking promising for those in the southern Ag Areas if this is right with further above average rainfall possible in the southeast.

More coming up for you early birds like me, the weather is certainly in a transition phase, so plenty more on that and what may start to take shape for the second half of June.