MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE MEDIUM TERM OFFERING A GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR CROPPING FARMERS IN SA AND VIC.

The rest of the nation, especially in the east has seen enough rainfall for now and could do with a break, and thankfully that wish may be granted as well, with those wanting rainfall in SA and VIC and continued rainfall for WA also getting their wish granted.


But caution as always as we gaze over yonder in the world of weather as things are harder to pick than a broken nose in the short term, that means the medium term is also providing significant challenges to be specific.


Overall, the confidence is improving on moisture surging into the west of the country, but can it be picked up by cold fronts running through the south of the nation? And can these fronts start to stand up to levels that were observed back in early June!?


Let's see


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE

The GFS increasing moisture tonight across the southern parts of the nation as we see the Indian Ocean playing a larger role as a westerly wind regime finally returns to Southern Australia. The rainfall is starting to move back towards seasonal values for southern states and near to above average over the SWLD of WA through this period. The east coast also seeing rainfall as well, but not as widespread but the moisture coming through the nation from west to east via the jet stream could get caught up with inland troughs and fronts in the east to produce further rainfall here.

CMC - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 30 members) LOW CHANCE

The CMC also increasing rainfall now through the outlook period, especially through the southeast and western Tasmania. Noting the rainfall numbers are coming up over much of the interior running through the jet stream with that possibly connecting with frontal weather. Now this chart does not see that, however 20 members do see some stronger connection between the moisture and the frontal weather over Southern Australia and drier weather developing over the east with heavier moisture to come through the jet stream into WA.

EURO - Rainfall Following 7 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Note that the rainfall numbers also increasing from the northwest through the southeast across the country, highlighting the shift towards the Indian Ocean playing more of a role as we finish July and into August. The frontal weather is key, the further north it can come, the wetter it will be over southern Australia, but generally most areas seeing 10mm and the wetter areas up to 30-40mm through this period which is what is expected for late July in a 7-day period. Moisture still hanging on over QLD and along the east coast with persistent low pressure sitting offshore.

LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

Well, this highlights the presence of the moisture coming through the jet stream and into inland troughs and frontal weather over the southern parts of the nation so we could be seeing the taps being turned on from a trickle to a blast over some parts of southern Australia.

REFERENCING THE MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST OVERARCHING THIS PERIOD.

Moisture looks more aggressive in the modelling this afternoon and that is linked to the fast flow pattern developing over the west of the nation, which will be gradually spreading eastwards through to SA and VIC with that moisture likely to lead to more cloud cover and potentially widespread rainfall in Southern Australia as we move into early August. Most likely the east coast should dry out as the wind regime tends into the west and normal Winter conditions. The Indian Ocean is alive and kicking at the moment out west and is likely to impact areas further to the east.

Rainfall Anomalies

The rainfall anomalies are increasing above the average over the western parts of the nation where there is growing evidence of stronger frontal weather passing through and attaching into moisture leading to large cloud bands and more widespread moderate rainfall at frequent intervals. The moisture over the northeast of the nation could run through the waters north of Australia leading to higher coverage of showers than what is seasonally expected. The remainder of the nation is in white, even though above average rainfall is being forecast in areas of SA and VIC. But given the constant let downs, I am keeping the forecast confidence low and when you see green on this chart for these areas there will be further focus information on that in other areas on the website and on the Facebook page.

Temperature Anomalies

The temperatures are starting to increase over much of the interior, the heat engine showing the first rumblings of waking up. This is assisted by the persistent westerly winds developing throughout the end of July and into August, dragging in the warmer and moist air through the jet stream and clashing that with frontal weather. So ahead of fronts in the southeast, marginally warmer but cloud cover and rainfall approaching suppressing the full warm up that can be experienced in times of El Nino/+IOD. This is a signal that the climate drivers are underway as planned. The cooler weather continues about parts of eastern Australia in persistent southeasterly trades, but these should begin to weaken.

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