MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE BROADER DATA SETS SUPPORTING THE SHIFT TO THE WINTER TIME RAINFALL.

Finally for areas of SA and VIC, rainfall numbers are coming up, thanks to the developing westerly wind belt with frontal weather moving north and northeast throughout the southeast states, with a cold southwest airstream to follow, leading to more widespread rainfall in these areas. Southern Agricultural areas of the nation look set to see the first dramatic burst of cold weather, with widespread rainfall developing.


Showers over the east coast are forecast to ease with widespread falls of the past few weeks set to move away as a westerly wind regime develops across the country.


This is typical for this time of year where we see the rainfall beginning to move southwards and the interior generally drying out, as does the northern areas and the east coast.


But this year, we have widespread rainfall developing through the jet stream thanks to higher-than-normal moisture values over the Indian Ocean being propelled into the western interior. For now, the rainfall stays out there, but a few of the members within the broader data sets support the rainfall chances spreading throughout the country. The confidence for rainfall from the jet stream running through the nation remains relatively low at this time.


Higher confidence is found in the rainfall developing over southern and southeast of the country with moderate to heavy falls possible which is great news.


Let’s take a look


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

GFS showing a much wetter southeast with locally heavy falls developing with the system rolling through during the weekend and into next week. The rainfall over the west is expected to come in multiple waves along a jet stream moving through during the short and medium term. Whether that can be fed into cold fronts remains to be seen but remains unlikely at this time. The east dries out somewhat from Friday for a while.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Rainfall is spreading throughout the southern and southeast parts of the nation as we see a shift in conditions across most members. The rainfall peaking this weekend and through Tuesday for the region then another large band of rain comes into the western interior. Now the single run I showed you in the video did not have this, but the broader members do favour that idea, so keeping the cloud band an active feature this weekend through next week with multiple waves of rain forming along the jet stream. Much drier east.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - HIGH CHANCE

The moisture across the nation is forecast to increase via the jet stream and that will be the key feature to sweep interior rainfall chances throughout the coming week or two. Widespread showers and storms throughout the southeast with moderate to heavy falls possible in the short term and again in the medium term. Showers over the southwest could also increase along a series of cold fronts that move in from mid next week. The east looks quite dry.

CFS - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 4 members) - LOW CHANCE

The rainfall output really favouring a big influx of moisture running from northwest to southeast being picked up by cold fronts running through the southern and southeast areas of the nation. While that is a chance, the overall risk is low. Note the rainfall distribution does leave the SWLD of WA mostly dry with below average rainfall which may occur come late Winter early Spring. It is something that will need to be watched.

More coming up for you early birds like me from 530am EST.



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