MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE BROADER DATA SETS STARTING TO SHOW THE RAINFALL IN THE WEST NEXT WEEK.

The short-term rainfall which has been covered off at length is forecasts throughout the day is likely to unfold as planned, the bulk of what you see coloured in over eastern inland areas of the nation comes in the next 36hrs before we see clearance.


The southeast sees persistent showery weather from Friday through much of next week into the following weekend, but the coverage of showers will slowly wind down through this period in advance of high-pressure moving in.


A system of greater interest is over the far northwest of the country, which is connected to the deeper moisture spreading through the jet stream. The moisture is likely to start pooling from early next week offshore then approach from this time next week. A trough also moving towards the west coast offshore may lift this moisture into a large cloud band leading to more widespread rainfall chances moving through the state.


The issue on rainfall coverage is still connected to the size, scale and strength of high pressure to the south and southeast of WA and whether that makes room for the rain to build over the SWLD. If the high stays closer, then we will likely see drier weather for much of the inland with rainfall staying coastal.


The models below are the broader data sets and offer some insights on this.


ENSEMBLE DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE

The numbers over the eastern inland have come up in recent runs so this may be reflected in my forecast tomorrow morning if the trends continue. The weather over the in the west of low confidence but note that this has heavier rainfall vs the single data set used in the weather update video this evening. Watching the moisture over northern Australia very closely as well as that may be drawn through the northern tropics.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - LOW CHANCE

The rainfall across the members is very divergent meaning that we will see further changes to the forecasts as we move through the outlook period. The rainfall in the east has come up for the short term with that expected tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning. Heavier moisture up over the north and northwest will come into play more than what this is showing, with frontal weather expected to increase in coverage towards mid-month.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Watching with interest the movement of rainfall over the interior through to the eastern inland, certainly more expressive in terms of rainfall. Out west, that looks more realistic to me given the moisture profile over the northwest and west. The southeast also showery but the coverage of rainfall could move out by this time next week with the high more progressive to the east. So, expect changes to the forecast rainfall chances across the country in the days ahead.

LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE.

Very heavy moisture load over northern Australia could populate the jet stream many times over the course of the next 6 weeks spreading rainfall over many areas, at possibly above average levels. This will be covered off in greater detail tomorrow from 11am EST.

More coming up from 530am for you early birds and the next video due out at 8am EST plus your climate refresher coming up from 11am EST.