MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE BROADER DATA SETS STARTING TO INCREASE RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

The rainfall is currently placed along the axis of the long wave trough which is positioned over the SWLD with frequent rainfall spreading through with frontal weather with moderate to heavy falls to continue.


A deep pulse of moisture is expected to move southeast from the Indian Ocean with the chance of a rain band forming along the eastern and northern flank of a strong cold front later this week in WA with this being the biggest rainfall opportunity for the week.


The rainfall over the southern parts of the nation this week with weakening cold fronts, patchier but some areas could see 10mm with these features passing through ahead of the deeper moisture plume and the stronger cold front Sunday into early next week.


Models are not agreed upon how that system will evolve across the nation's southeast, but there are signals for rainfall to increase over southern Agricultural areas of the nation as we move through the latter part of the weekend into next week.


Let's take a look at the data sets to see what is on the agenda rain wise nationally.


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Rainfall numbers coming up over the nation as the strong system that brings severe weather potential into southern WA and a large band of rainfall Friday into Saturday rolls into the Bight and begins to cut off into a low-pressure system approaching SA and VIC later in the weekend. There may be some heavy falls about coastal areas which is typical for June with the weaker features rolling through this week, but the bulk of the heavier rainfall is expected with the latter system next week. That system could also flare rainfall over the eastern interior if the trough can link into moisture streaming in from the north.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Rainfall numbers also coming up from the last update Friday, you can see as mentioned during last week that the rainfall numbers are filling in over the nation as the moisture folds in from all angles, now it is a wait and see what low pressure feature runs into the moisture and where!? Odds are on for the wetter weather to be found over SA, VIC and southern NSW.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

The rainfall is likely to be mainly over southern and western parts of the nation with the rainfall spread adopting a typical June appearance. The interior remains dry for now, but some of the members are starting to see rainfall increasing for parts of eastern QLD with a trough in the medium term, similar to the GFS which does offer some interest for the days ahead to see if that starts to pick up in the signals moving towards the end of the month. The wettest parts of the nation as expected is along the southern coastal areas of the country, anywhere exposed to the westerly wind regime to get the best of it. There could also be some light to moderate rainfall along the extreme coastal fringe of SE QLD and N NSW this weekend into next week with a deep low to the east of Norfolk Island, backwashing into the eastern states.




LONG TERM


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks -MODERATE CHANCE

The signals for rainfall are forecast to remain very high through the period, but this is showing more rainfall coming in the July period which I will cover off again during tomorrow with a breakdown on conditions in the longer term. I will note that there is the July Outlook 2022 already made from the weekend you can refer to.


I will have more from 530am EST with a look at the weather systems to watch for those who are time poor, and the next video is at 8am EST with the broader update for those who want deeper analysis. Also looking at the next 6 weeks to see how we are travelling through the remainder of June and into early July 2022.