MODELS AND RAINFALL - THE BROADER DATA SETS STARTING TO GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

We have seen a nice increase of rainfall through the southern and western areas of the nation into the forecast period, with the forecast packages supporting an increase of moisture passing through the jet stream and this running into frontal weather moving from west to east, with cloud bands emerging and widespread rainfall developing across WA, SA, VIC and inland NSW.


Some chance that moisture could be pulled southwards from the NT through QLD as well, but the better chances of rainfall developing is expected to be found out over southern Australia.


As mentioned, the SAM tending negative is going to support widespread falls developing for southern and western Australia, but if the SAM tends positive, that will support the rainfall increasing over the northern and eastern Australia. We will have to watch this climate driver very closely in the coming days for more guidance.


ENSEMBLE DATA

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) MODERATE CHANCE

Rainfall is expected to gradually increase over the southern parts of the nation with the northward movement of the westerly wind belt, the increase of Indian Ocean moisture and this combining to lift rainfall across the southern third of the country. The rest of the nation I would be leaning drier, but also drier along the east coast for now, once we lose the showers. Then conditions will start to shift in these areas into early August.

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) MODERATE CHANCE

Very similar spread to the pattern from the GFS, the gradual increase in the moisture across the nation's south with frontal weather tapping into that moisture leading to more widespread cloud cover and areas of rain developing. Drier weather is forecast to persist over the north but that will shift as we move into August.

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) MODERATE CHANCE

Also noting the Euro is in line with other models in increasing rainfall over southern areas of the nation with the heaviest of the rainfall over the SWLD, VIC and western TAS. Moderate rainfall can be expected on this prognosis elsewhere through the southern Ag Areas of the nation from SA through to the Food Bowl. But with moisture increasing throughout the atmosphere, we may start to see higher rainfall totals developing over SA, VIC and NSW as the long wave trough moves into the east of the nation. Follow up rainfall looks to come into August.

LONG TERM

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The CFS continues to show a very damp August for many areas, and I will have more on that later this week with an August detailed outlook and more information on the Indian Ocean which you will be scholars in by the time we get to the end of the year ;)

More coming up from 5am EST looking at the elements for the short term ahead of the video from 8am EST. Lots on this week as we track the next weather makers across the country into short and medium term.